Daily Grain Technicals and Fundamentals (8.1.18)
Aug 01, 2018
Yesterday’s Close: December corn futures finished yesterday’s session up 5 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 8 ¼ cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 16,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: The market marched higher yesterday on spillover strength from beans, which stemmed from headlines that China would be coming back to the negotiating table. Those headlines came in the “intermission”, when the floor opened we saw a swift move higher. Details were non-existent, and we saw headlines in the late afternoon that talks had broke down again, which has put pressure on things in the overnight and early morning trade. Some analysts are also suggesting that hot and dry weather over the 10-14 days could also be helping support the market.
Technicals: Previous resistance now becomes first support, we see that as 379 ¾-382 ¼. This pocket represents a key retracement on the year, the 50-day moving average, and previously important price points. A breakdown back below here could mute the rally and lead to consolidation. On the resistance side of things, there are several barriers between 389 ¾ and....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: November soybeans finished yesterday’s session p 26 cents, trading in a range of 33 ½ cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 10,000 contracts on the day.
Fundamentals: In yesterday’s report, we said: “we would not be terribly surprised to see China come back to the table”. 30 minutes after we sent out the report, there were headlines suggesting that trade talks would resume. We saw this provide a monster pop on the open. When the market was closed, we saw headlines that talks had broken down, this has us giving up some of those gains yesterday. The headline driven market isn’t the most ideal, but you have to trade the market you have, not the one you want. Don’t let FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) paralyze you from being proactive, especially if you are trading short dated options.
Technicals: The market broke out above significant resistance from 897 ¾-901 ¾ thanks to bullish trade headlines. That took the market to our next resistance pocket which we had defined in yesterday’s report as 915 ¾-920 ½. With the 50-day moving average coming in just above there, this was a spot to be proactive and reduce risk if you had been long. As mentioned above, FOMO is real, we use technical levels to help prevent us from being paralyzed by the market. The market has retreated in the overnight and early morning session. As with any other market, we look at previous resistance as support, so.....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: September wheat futures finished yesterday’s session up 9 ½ cents, trading in a range of 24 ½ cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 7,500 contracts.
Fundamentals: Wheat futures continued to gain ground yesterday on spill over strength for corn and beans, but also due t continued concerns of global production. Weather conditions abroad continue to offer support to the market with the biggest concerns coming from Europe and the Blake Sea region, this will continue to be monitored closely. We think these prices present great opportunities for producers to lock in prices going out to next years crop.
Technicals: The technicals remain strong, but they clash with our fundamental outlook, so our bias remains neutral. The breakout above 550-553 ¾ opens the door to the May 29th highs of 570 ¾. If the market chews through here and retains strength, we could see things accelerate and press prices above the $6.00 handle in short order. On the support side of things....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Sign up for a free trial of 1 or all 5 of our daily Blue Line Express commodity reports!
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.