Daily Grain Technicals and Fundamentals (8.7.18)
Aug 07, 2018
Yesterday’s Close: December corn futures finished yesterday’s session up ¾ of a cent, trading in a range of 3 ¾ cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 6,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: Corn futures were the tamest of the three that we write about every morning as market participants sat on their hands awaiting new news. Yesterday’s crop progress report showed U.S. corn dropped 1% to 71% good/excellent, this was inline with what most analysts were expecting. Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 1,287,772 metric tons, this was within the range of exceptions. Weekly export sales will be released Thursday morning, but the big report this week will be the WASDE report Friday at 11am cst. Early yield estimates are at 176.3 bushels per acre, this would be up 2.3bpa from July’s report. The average estimate for corn production comes in at 14.416 billion bushels, up from 14.230 in July.
Technicals: With yesterday’s quiet session, not much has changed on the technical landscape. The market has held our technical support pocket from 379 ¾-382 ¼. This pocket represents a key retracement on the year, the 50-day moving average, and previously important price points. A break and close below here will likely encourage some long liquidation from recent buyers. If the bulls can defend this level, they remain in control. The market is now testing the top end of the recent range and looks poised for a leg higher. There are several barriers from....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: November soybean futures finished yesterday’s session down 10 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 16 ¼ cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 5,500 contracts.
Fundamentals: Soybeans dipped lower yesterday on the back of good weather conditions and continued concerns regarding global trade. We continue to feel that China will come back to the closer to fall, a time of year where they typically ramp up the buying of U.S. beans. Expect trade headlines to add volatility for the foreseeable future. Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 893,109 metric tons, this was above the range of expectations. Crop progress yesterday afternoon showed good/excellent ratings fell 3% to 67%, this has provided some relief in the overnight/early morning trade. Attention will now turn to Friday’s WASDE report which will be released at 11am cst. Early yield estimates are at 49.8 bushels per acre, up from 48.5 in July. Early production estimates are at 4.425 billion bushels, up from 4.310 in July.
Technicals: Despite a wide trade range yesterday, not much has changed on the technical road map. The market continues to linger around the psychologically significant $9.00 handle as it awaits new news. Our technical support pocket from 881 ½-885 ¼ was tested and defended. Another retest to this pocket could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. On the resistance side of things, we....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: September wheat futures finished yesterday’s session up 15 cents, trading in a range of 24 ¾. Funds were estimated buyers of 11,500 contracts.
Fundamentals: Wheat continues to work higher as continued worries over global production spark buying interest, with a serious in drought in Australia (among other areas) being the foundation of those concerns. Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 325,486 metric tons, this was within the range of expectations. Yesterday’s crop progress report showed that spring wheat conditions fell 4% to 74% good/excellent. Spring wheat is now 13% harvested with winter wheat harvest reported at 90%. Traders will now turn their attention to Friday’s USDA report, we will have estimates out tomorrow morning.
Technicals: Wheat was trading higher for a majority of the night and morning but have turned sharply as we write this mornings report, the September contract roughly 12 cents off of the high and trading in negative territory. If this weakness carries into the normal trading hours, we could see a near term top in the market. A close back below 570 ¾ could spark a round of long liquidation and take us back to....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
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