Daily Grain Technicals & Fundamentals
Aug 08, 2018
Yesterday’s Close: December corn futures finished yesterday’s session down ¼ of a cent, trading in a 4 ¾ cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 4,500 contracts.
Fundamentals: There has not been any new news over the last 24 hours which can be seen on the chart by the tight range bound trade. Most market participants are anxiously awaiting Friday’s USDA report. Early yield estimates are at 176.3 bushels per acre, this would be up 2.3bpa from July’s report. The average estimate for corn production comes in at 14.416 billion bushels, up from 14.230 in July. Carryout for 2017/2018 is expected to come in near 2.014 billion bushels. Carryout for 2018/2019 is expected to come in near 1.638 billion bushels. We do have the weekly EIA report this morning, that will give us an updated look at ethanol production. Tomorrow morning the USDA will release weekly export sales.
Technicals: The market has hardly budged over the last 24 hours which keeps yesterday’s technicals in play today. The market has held our technical support pocket from 379 ¾-382 ¼. This pocket represents a key retracement on the year, the 50-day moving average, and previously important price points. A break and close below here will likely encourage some long liquidation from recent buyers. If the bulls can defend this level, they remain in control. The market is now testing the top end of the recent range and looks poised for a leg higher. There are several barriers from....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: November soybean futures finished yesterday’s session up 11 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 12 ½ cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 7,500 contracts.
Fundamentals: We did a segment on CNBC yesterday discussing the bull case for soybeans, Click this link to watch. We continue to believe that China will be coming back to the negotiating table, or at the very least step in and buy our beans. In other news, we are excited about Friday’s USDA report. Early yield estimates are at 49.8 bushels per acre, up from 48.5 in July. Early production estimates are at 4.425 billion bushels, up from 4.310 in July. Carryout estimates for 2017/2018 are 463.4 million bushels. Average estimate for 2018/2019 carryout is 647.5 million bushels.
Technicals: The market has consolidated in-between two of our major levels for 7 sessions now, and it is likely we don’t get a new directional move until Friday’s USDA report. The market continues to linger around the psychologically significant $9.00 handle as it awaits new news. Our technical support pocket from 881 ½-885 ¼ was tested and defended. Another retest to this pocket could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. On the resistance side of things....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: September wheat futures finished yesterday’s session down 5 ½ cents, trading in a range of 22 ¼ cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 7,500 contracts.
Fundamentals: It’s the same story every day now, continued concerns over dry weather in the Black Sea, Europe, and Australia continue to offer support to the market. We believe that a lot of this is likely priced into the market at these prices, and perhaps overly priced in. Though we have a bearish bias, this is not a market you want to blindly short. Navigating the markets isn’t about “trading”, it’s about managing your risk.
Technicals: It has been a similar overnight/early morning trade to the previous session, we start out firm but see pressure come in around 7am cst. The market is hovering right around previous resistance at 570 ¾, this will be a big line in the sand on a closing basis. A conviction close below would likely encourage long liquidation. A conviction close above likely takes us to....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
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