Daily Grain Technicals & Fundamentals (10.15.18)

Published on: 12:48PM Oct 15, 2018

Corn (December)

 

Last Week’s Close: December corn futures finished Friday’s session up 4 cents, extending gains for the week to 5 ¼ cents. Futures traded in a 13 ¾ cent range. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds bought back 27,988 contracts through October 9th, shrinking their net short position to 39,399 futures.

 

Fundamentals:  With the USDA report behind us, attention will turn towards the continuation of harvest.  There are some regions of the Midwest that have been at a standstill due to wet and even wintery weather, this will be something to keep a closer eye on going forward.  Crop Progress after the close will give us an up to date look at where we stand. 

 

Technicals: Friday’s conviction close above 370 could be the trigger to encourage additional short covering and invite momentum traders back into the market. There is some technical resistance from 373 ¾-375 ¾, this pocket represents the 100-day moving average and a key retracement on the year. If the bulls can chew through this pocket their next objective is....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

 

Soybeans (November)

 

Last Week’s Close:  November soybean futures finished Friday’s session up 9 ¼ cents, trimming losses for the week to 1 ¾ cents. Futures traded in a 27 ¾ cent range. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds bought back 3,187 contracts through October 9th, trimming their net short position to 39,691 futures.

 

Fundamentals:  With the USDA report behind us, attention will turn towards the continuation of harvest.  There are some regions of the Midwest that have been at a standstill due to wet and even wintery weather, this will be something to keep a closer eye on going forward.  Crop Progress after the close will give us an up to date look at where we stand.  NOPA crush data will be released this morning at 11:00 am ct, the average analyst estimate is for 157.406 million bushels.  There were talks last week that the U.S. and China would resume trade talks next month, if we get more detail on this we could see additional short covering come into play.

 

Technicals:  Our resistance pocket from 870 ¾-875 was defended by the bears last week, but a retest this week would likely lead to another round of short covering. The chart has been more constructive as of late and if the bulls can get this next leg higher we would mark higher lows and higher highs, giving the bull camp a clear advantage for the intermediate term. The next line in the sand for resistance comes in at....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

Wheat (December)

 

Last Week’s Close:  December wheat futures finished Friday’s session up 9 ¾ cents, trimming losses for the week to 5 ¼ cents. Futures traded in a 19-cent range. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 6,390 contracts through October 9th, expanding their net short position to 18,098 futures.

 

Fundamentals:  Wheat futures were supported in the back half of last weeks trade thanks to some friendlier technicals and spillover from corn and beans.  Wet/winter weather has likely slowed the pace of winter wheat planting for some, we will get an up to date look at that in this afternoon’s Crop Progress report.

 

Technicals: The market trade within our technical support and resistance pockets perfectly last week. Our resistance pocket from 523 ¼-528 remains intact, as does support near 505. A breakout or break down from these levels will give likely give the market its next trend. We have been bearish wheat for the past several months, working with clients to sell rallies and reduce shorts against technical support (rinse and repeat). Over the last few weeks, the market has been consolidating, changing the trend from....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

 

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