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Daily Grain Technicals & Fundamentals (10.2.18)

Published on: 12:53PM Oct 02, 2018

Corn (December)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  December corn futures finished yesterday’s session up 9 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 10 cents.  Funds were estimated buyers of 21,000 contracts on the day.

 

Fundamentals:  Corn worked higher on short covering and optimism from a new trade deal with our neighbors to the north.  Yesterday morning’s export inspections came in at 1,344mmt, this was slightly above the top end of estimates.  Yesterday afternoon’s crop progress report showed corn harvest is now 26% complete, well above last year’s pace of 16%.  We have seen firms raise their yield estimates, making them closer to what the USDA has in place, which begs the question:  Are the hardcore fundamentalists just trapped in an echo chamber?  When that starts happening people start looking for affirmation instead of information, this is why we put a big emphasis on technicals, it helps remove some of the emotion. 

 

Technicals:  Despite the big rally yesterday, technical resistance remains intact from the reports we have been putting out for the past few weeks.  366-369 ¾ is that pocket.  this pocket represents the original breakdown point from the USDA report on August 12th, the 50-day moving average, and the top end of the most recent range.  This is now the second and third test of this level which makes it a little less significant.  If the bulls can chew through resistance we would expect to see....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

Soybeans (November)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  November soybean futures finished yesterday’s session up 11 cents, trading in a range of 21 cents.  Funds were estimated buyers of 6,500 contracts on the day.

 

Fundamentals:  The market traded higher on optimism surrounding the new trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, this would not necessarily have a meaningful impact on soybeans, but perhaps it’s the optimism that the Administration is getting deals made.  Export inspections yesterday morning came in at 591,115 metric tons, this was within the range of expectations.  Yesterday’s crop progress report showed soybean harvest is now 23% complete, this is 3% ahead of last year’s pace.

 

Technicals:  November soybeans poked their head above the top end of our technical resistance pocket which we labeled as 863 ¼, the market failed to accelerate above here which invited some sellers back into the market at better prices.  If the bears continue to defend resistance we could see the market work back towards the low end of the recent trading range, we see that as....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

Wheat (December)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  December wheat futures finished yesterday’s session up ¼ of a cent, trading in a range of 9 ¾ cents.  Funds were estimated buyers of 1,500 contracts on the day.

 

Fundamentals:  Wheat futures finished the session near unchanged, despite the strength in corn and beans, this should be a little bit of a caution flag.  Export inspections yesterday morning came in at 369,270 metric tons, this was towards the low end of estimates.  Winter wheat is now 43% complete, this is well ahead of last year’s pace of 34%.

 

Technicals:  Yesterday’s inside day (trading within the previous day’s range) keep a lot of the technicals in play for today’s trading session.  Technical resistance remains intact from 523 ½-526.  This pocket represents a key retracement on the year and the 200-day moving average.  A conviction close above here would neutralize the chart, until then, the bears remain in clear control.  If the bears continue to pile on, we would not be surprised to see prices work lower with a target of....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

 

 

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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