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Daily Grain Technicals & Fundamentals (10.3.18)

Published on: 13:02PM Oct 03, 2018

Corn (December)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  December corn futures finished yesterday’s session up 1 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 5 ¾ cents.  Funds were estimated buyers of 10,500 contracts on the day.

 

Fundamentals:  The market continues to grind higher on the back of poor weather forecasts throughout areas of the corn belt, this has caused concern for some but is likely being over reported as harvest is already ahead of pace.  Though we will continue to monitor weather and acknowledge its potential impact, the seasonality of a harvest low is a little better catalyst in our minds.

 

Technicals:  The market is knocking on the resistance door again.  The more time prices test resistance, the less significant those levels become.  We have had 366-369 ¾ listed as resistance for multiple weeks now and we have been trading here for the better part of the last week.  A close above this pocket could encourage additional long liquidation from the funds, the next resistance pocket doesn’t come in until 375 ¾-377 ¼, this pocket represents the 100-day moving average and a key retracement on the year.  On the support side of things....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

Soybeans (November)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  November soybean futures finished yesterday’s session up 11 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 14 ¼ cents.  Funds were estimated buyers of 7,500 contracts on the day.

 

Fundamentals:  The market has managed to rally to start the week thanks to seasonality, trade optimism, and weather concerns.  The market is trying to cement a harvest low which is historically typical for this time of year.  We saw an agreement with Canada Sunday regarding trade, this will not have an impact on soybeans but is positive for sentiment and keeps the hopes alive that the U.S. and China can start moving the ball forward.  Wet weather has some concerned, we have yet to put a lot of weight into that catalyst.  It’s a similar concern to those worried about planting every year, in the end it seems to work out and Midwest weather is nothing new. 

 

Technicals:  The chart has been constructive over the past two weeks, with yesterday’s move and this morning’s follow through building onto that.  870 ¾ is a key retracement on the year, a conviction close above this level could spark another round of short covering which could open the door for a run at 901 ¾-907.  If the bears defend resistance today, perhaps we see the market work back towards....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

Wheat (December)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  December wheat futures finished yesterday’s session up 9 ½ cents, trading in a range of 19 ½ cents.  Funds were estimated buyers of 8,000 contracts on the day.

 

Fundamentals:  Wheat futures caught a bid yesterday, thanks in large part to news coming from Russia.  The report was that there may be 30 loading points in Russia suspended due violation of phytosanitary rules.  This will be something to keep a close eye on in the coming days, if it is confirmed we could see another bid come into the market.  Ultimately, we think this will likely be sold into.

 

Technicals:  On the technical side of things, yesterday’s rally was a gift.  The market got a pop back into our resistance pocket which we have had defined as 523 ½-526 for several weeks now.  This pocket represents a key retracement on the year and the 200-day moving average.  A failure here would also mark lower highs, which leaves the door open for lower lows.  If the bears continue to defend this pocket on a closing basis, we would expect to see the market....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

 

 

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