Daily Grain Technicals & Fundamentals (10.5.18)

Published on: 12:56PM Oct 05, 2018

Corn (December)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  December corn futures finished yesterday’s session up 3 ½ cents, trading in a range of 3 ¾ cents.  Funds were estimated buyers of 9,000 contracts on the day.

 

Fundamentals:  Export sales yesterday morning came in at 1,431,000 metric tons, this was towards the top end of expectations.  Weather forecasts continue to be a concern for harvest which could be keeping a premium in the market into the weekend.  If the premium sticks around today and weather disappoints over the weekend, we would expect to see a move lower to start next week.  Monday is Columbus Day, so the volume may be a little lighter.  The next big-ticket item for news is next Thursday’s WASDE report, we will have estimates for you by early next week.

 

Technicals:  We surely sound like a broken record by now, but not much has changed as we continue to linger near the top end of our resistance pocket.  We have had 366-369 ¾ listed as resistance for multiple weeks now and we have been trading here for the better part of the last week.  A close above this pocket could encourage additional short covering from the funds, the next resistance pocket doesn’t come in until 375 ¾-376 ¼, this pocket represents the 100-day moving average and a key retracement on the year.  On the support side of things....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

Soybeans (November)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  November soybean futures finished yesterday’s session down 1 ½ cents, trading in a range of 10 cents.  Funds were estimated sellers of 3,500 contracts on the day.

 

Fundamentals:  Export sales yesterday morning came in at 1,521,000 metric tons, this was above the top end of expectations.  As with corn, weather continues to be a lingering harvest concern for some throughout the Midwest.  We would not be surprised to see a premium stay as we approach the weekend, but a miss on weather will likely lead to a gap lower come Sunday night.  Monday is Columbus Day, so the volume may be a little lighter.  The next big-ticket item for news is next Thursday’s WASDE report, we will have estimates for you by early next week.

 

Technicals:  The market rejected resistance yet again yesterday, a pocket we have had defined as 870 ¾-871.  This pocket represents a key retracement on the year, along with previously important price points over the last several months.  A conviction close above this level could spark another round of short covering which could open the door for a run at 901 ¾-907.  If the bears continue to defend resistance, we could see the market work back towards the lower end of the recent range which comes in closer to....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

Wheat (December)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  December wheat futures finished yesterday’s session up 2 ½ cents, trading in a range of 7 cents, funds were estimated buyers of 2,000 contracts on the day.

 

Fundamentals:  Yesterday’s export sales came in at 435,000 metric tons, this was within the range of analyst expectations.  Dry areas of Australia have been receiving moisture which could help the crop in the near term.  Monday is Columbus Day, so the volume may be a little lighter.  The next big-ticket item for news is next Thursday’s WASDE report, we will have estimates for you by early next week.

 

Technicals:  the market remains contained between our support and resistance levels, so there is not much new to report this morning.  First resistance remains at 523 ½-527 ¼, this pocket represents a key retracement on the year and the 200-day moving average.  The failure here also marks lower highs, which leaves the door open for lower lows.  If prices work back towards the top end of this pocket before the end of the week, that would neutralize the chart and put the bulls in a good position into the weekend.  On the support side of things, we have an eye on....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

 

 

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