Daily Grain Technicals & Fundamentals (8.15.18)
Aug 15, 2018
Yesterday’s Close: December corn futures finished yesterday’s session up 5 ½ cents, trading in a range of 6 ¾ cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 15,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: The market managed to feed off Monday’s positive momentum yesterday as some market participants suggest that the USDA set the bar too high for yield, leaving the door open for disappointment. We will begin to beg more clarity on yield over the next month when combines start to roll. Weather is still important for some areas but is playing a diminishing role.
Technicals: The market moved out above the 50-day moving average yesterday but is having trouble finding follow through in the overnight and early morning trade. The next line in the sand comes in at 380 ½, this represents a key Fibonacci retracement from the May highs to the July lows, as well as the breakdown point from Friday’s session. We believe the bears retain control until consecutive closes above this pocket. On the support side of things, our previous 3-star support from....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: November soybean futures finished yesterday’s session up 11 cents, trading in a range of 16 ½ cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 6,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: The market has done an extraordinary job of recovering losses in the first two days of the week, but that may be coming to an end shortly. As with corn, the USDA may have set the bar too high for yield and production numbers, but the trade situation with China continues to weigh heavy on the market. There is a chance that the US and China can come to some agreement in the future, but the market seems to be wanting to see more evidence.
Technicals: The market worked up into our 3-star resistance pocket yesterday afternoon and last night, we have defined that as 881 ½-885 ¼. We continue to believe the bears have an advantage until the bulls can achieve consecutive closes above this pocket. On the support side of things, a retest to....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: September wheat futures finished yesterday’s session up 4 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 12 cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 6,500 contracts.
Fundamentals: Wheat futures managed to find footing in yesterday’s session on what was likely just some spill over strength from corn and beans. We continue to feel that the market has priced in a bulk of the bullish news revolving weather-related production concerns in Australia, Europe, and the Black sea. The market needs to be fueled by new news and it doesn’t seem there is any out there.
Technicals: The market is continuing to linger around our pivot point at 538 ½ as the market tries to decide which way it wants to go. We continue to believe the bears have the advantage here and are eventually looking for the market to retest 518 ½-521 ¾. This pocket represents the 50 and 100 day moving average, the 50% retracement, and the original breakout point from July 25th....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
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