Daily Grain Technicals & Fundamentals (8.16.18)
Aug 16, 2018
Yesterday’s Close: December corn futures finished yesterday’s session down ½ of a cent, trading in a range of 4 ½ cents.
Fundamentals: Corn futures finished yesterday’s session near unchanged as the market searched for new news to find inspiration for a new move. The market found that inspiration overnight on news that China and the U.S. would come together and hold another round of trade talks at the end of the month. The US dollar has also taken a bit of a breather from the recent surge higher, this has offered some support to commodities in the early morning trade. Export sales this morning came in at 1,382,900 metric tons, this was within the range of expectations. The bears are in control of the chart but the positive news on trade has prompted us to change our bias to neutral.
Technicals: Positive news overnight has the market working higher in the early morning session, pressing prices up against first technical resistance which we have outlined as 380 ½. This line in the sand represents a key Fibonacci retracement from the May highs to the July lows, as well as the breakdown point from Friday’s session. We believe the bears retain control until consecutive closes above this pocket. On the support side of things, our previous 3-star support from....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: November soybean futures finished yesterday’s session down 11 cents, trading in a range of 16 ½ cents.
Fundamentals: The market caught a breath of fresh air last night on reports that the U.S. and China would resume trade talks at the end of the month. This may be part of the reason why we saw a stronger trade the first two days of the week after an ultra-bearish USDA report. Expect volatility to persist over the next few weeks as headlines (good or bad) keeps traders and algos on their toes. NOPA crush report yesterday showed 167.733 million bushels of soybeans crushed in July, this was up from 159.228 in June. Export sales this morning came in at 705,000 metric tons, this was within the range of expectations.
Technicals: The market is trading higher in the early morning trade, thanks to new news on the trade front. The chart is questionable, but the positive news overnight has led us to change our bias to outright neutral. The early morning high comes in at 893 ¼, a hair shy of the 50-day moving average which comes in at 893 ¾. If the bulls can chew through resistance and close above here, we could see funds cover shorts and take prices towards our next resistance pocket which comes in from....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: September wheat futures finished yesterday’s session down 8 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 14 cents.
Fundamentals: The market has found a bid in the overnight and early morning trade as positive news on the trade front has spilled into the wheat pit. The US dollar has started to take a breather today which has also helped offer support to commodities this morning. We continue to be bearish on this market and believe that a lot of the bad news with regards to global production has been priced into the market. Export sales this morning came in at 803,000 metric tons, this was well above the top end of expectations.
Technicals: The market is continuing to linger around our pivot point at 538 ½ as the market tries to decide which way it wants to go. We continue to believe the bears have the advantage here and are eventually looking for the market to retest....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
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