Daily Grain Technicals & Fundamentals (9.10.18)
Sep 10, 2018
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Last Week’s Close: December corn futures finished Friday’s session up 1 ¼ cents, putting prices in positive territory by 1 ½ cents for the week. Futures traded in a 8 ¾ cent range during the shortened trading week. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 1,234 through September 4th, expanding their net short position to 80,539 futures.
Fundamentals: Crop progress will be released after the close today, we are not expecting any significant changes. The big-ticket item this week will be the USDA report Wednesday (11am cst). Early estimates are for U.S. yields to come in at 177.8, slightly below last months 178.4. U.S. production estimates are coming in near 14.53 billion bushels, just below last month’s 14.586. U.S. carryout is expected to come in near 1.64 billion bushels, slightly lower than last month’s 1.684.
Technicals: December corn futures are starting this week’s trade in the exact same spot as last week’s open. The market has been trading sideways in a relatively tight range, because of this, many of our technicals remain the same. Our resistance pocket continues to hold from 369 ½-370 ¾, the bears are in total control until the bulls can achieve consecutive closes above this pocket. On the support side of things, the first pocket we see comes in from....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Last Week’s Close: November soybean futures finished Friday’s session up 5 ¾ cents, trimming losses for the week to just ½ of a cent. Futures traded in a 16 ¾ cent range during the shortened trading week. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 8,550 futures through September 4th, expanding their net short position to 69,799.
Fundamentals: Crop progress will be released after the close today, but the more significant headlines will come Wednesday in the form of a USDA report. Early estimates for U.S. soybean yields are 52.2, up from last months 51.6. Production is also estimated to be higher with estimates coming in near 4.65 billion bushels, up from last months 4.586. U.S. carryout estimates are coming in near .830 billion bushels, up from last month’s .785.
Technicals: On the technical side of things, the market is right back up against last week’s resistance pocket from 850-853 ½. The bears must defend this pocket on a closing basis, a failure to do so could spark a round of short covering. The floor open will be more telling for price, with more participation/volume. On the support side of things....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Last Week’s Close: December wheat futures finished Friday’s session down 1 ½ cents, extending losses for the week to 33 ½ cents. Futures traded in a 35 cent range during the shortened trading week. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 10,101 futures through September 4th, trimming their net long position to 35,997.
Fundamentals: Wheat has hard a hard time finding a silver lining over the last months as funds have continued to liquidate their net long position in the face of no more bullish news. We do have a USDA report this week, but the report will focus on corn and beans, the wheat market will be susceptible from spillover in those two markets. U.S. wheat carryout is estimated to come in near .940 billion bushels, up a hair from last month’s .935.
Technicals: The bears remain in total control, there’s no arguing that, but due to a more than $1.00 decline in the last month, there may not be a lot of juice left in this grape. The market may see short spurts of short covering. Ultimately, we think short covering rallies will present an opportunity to sell again at better prices. First technical resistance this week comes in from 518 ½-523 ½. A close above here could extend the market towards....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
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