Daily Grain Technicals & Fundamentals (9.11.18)
Sep 11, 2018
Yesterday’s Close: December corn futures finished yesterday’s session down ¼ of a cent, trading in a range of 3 ¾ cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 3,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: Export inspections yesterday morning came in at 763,000 metric tons, this was less than the range of trade estimates. Yesterday’s weekly crop progress report showed good/excellent ratings fell 1% to 66. Harvest is estimated to be 6% complete. The market remains in a holding pattern as market participants await Wednesday’s USDA report. Early estimates are for U.S. yields to come in at 177.8, slightly below last month’s 178.4. U.S. production estimates are coming in near 14.53 billion bushels, just below last month’s 14.586. U.S. carryout is expected to come in near 1.64 billion bushels, slightly lower than last month’s 1.684.
Technicals: Due to the tight ranging sideways trade, there has not been a lot of exciting new news on the technical front. Our resistance pocket continues to hold from 369 ½-370 ¾, the bears are in total control until the bulls can achieve consecutive closes above this pocket. If the bulls can chew through resistance we could see short covering take us back towards 380. On the support side of things, the first pocket we see comes in from....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: November soybeans finished yesterday’s session up 1 ½ cents, trading in a range of 10 ¾ cents. Funds were estimated to have been flat on the day.
Fundamentals: Export inspections yesterday morning came in at 925,000 metric tons, this was towards the top end of trade estimates. The USDA did announce a sale of 132,000 metric tons to “Unknown” for 2018/2019. Yesterday’s weekly crop progress report showed good/excellent ratings fell 1% to 65%. The big-ticket item this week will be tomorrow’s USDA report. Early estimates for U.S. soybean yields are 52.2, up from last month’s 51.6. Production is also estimated to be higher with estimates coming in near 4.65 billion bushels, up from last month’s 4.586. U.S. carryout estimates are coming in near .830 billion bushels, up from last month’s .785.
Technicals: Soybeans are in the same boat as corn, with regards to the sideways/rangebound trade keeping technical developments very limited. 850-853 ½ remains intact, this pocket represents previously important price points as well as the psychologically significant $8.50 level. The bears must defend this pocket on a closing basis, a failure to do so could spark a round of short covering. The floor open will be more telling for price, with more participation/volume. On the support side of things....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: December wheat futures finished yesterday’s session up 15 ½ cents, trading in a range of 20 ¾ cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 5,500 contracts.
Fundamentals: Yesterday morning’s export inspections came in at 429,000 metric tons, nothing to write home about. Some analysts attribute yesterdays rally to “tightening global supplies”, this after their analysis of the previous day stated that prices fell on “ample global supplies”; quite a quick shift in global demand! Remember, price precedes headlines so take them with a grain of salt. In our mind, yesterday’s move was nothing more than technical short covering ahead of a USDA report, nothing to write home about.
Technicals: The market closed out above technical resistance yesterday which leaves the market susceptible to additional short covering, the next significant resistance pocket comes in from 540 ¾-541 ¾, this pocket represents the 50 and 100 day moving average, the 50% retracement (middle of the range) for the year, and trendline resistance. Though we acknowledge we could see the market work higher in the very near term, we continue to believe the bears have the advantage over the intermediate term, and any rallies will be opportunities to sell at better prices. The market is softer this morning, we will put more weight into....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
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