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Daily Grain Technicals & Fundamentals (9.12.18)

Published on: 13:06PM Sep 12, 2018

Corn (December)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  December corn futures finished yesterday’s session down ¾ of a cent, trading in a range of 3 ½ cents. 

 

Fundamentals:  Corn continued to trade within the range of the last week as market participants await this mornings USDA report, that will be released at 11 am cst.  Estimates are for U.S. yields to come in at 177.8, slightly below last month’s 178.4.  U.S. production estimates are coming in near 14.53 billion bushels, just below last month’s 14.586.  U.S. carryout is expected to come in near 1.64 billion bushels, slightly lower than last month’s 1.684.  These estimates are friendly but have likely been priced in over the last two weeks.  We believe corn has a better fundamental landscape, but a bearish tone in soybeans and wheat could be a headwind for prices. 

 

TechnicalsDue to the tight ranging sideways trade, there has not been a lot of exciting new news on the technical front.  Our resistance pocket continues to hold from 369 ½-370 ¾, the bears are in total control until the bulls can achieve consecutive closes above this pocket.  If the bulls can chew through resistance we could see short covering take us back towards 380.  On the support side of things, the first pocket we see comes in from....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

Soybeans (November)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  November soybeans finished yesterday’s session down 15 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 18 ¾ cents.

 

Fundamentals:  Market participants seem to be bracing themselves for what they expect to be a bearish USDA report, released at 11 am cst.  Expectations are bearish, so in line or better than expected data would likely provide support to the market.  We have been very outspoken about our bearish bias over the last month but are trimming things back into a coin flip.  Estimates for U.S. soybean yields are 52.2, up from last month’s 51.6.  Production is also estimated to be higher with estimates coming in near 4.65 billion bushels, up from last month’s 4.586.  U.S. carryout estimates are coming in near .830 billion bushels, up from last month’s .785.

 

TechnicalsWe have been looking for a retest of contract lows for the last month and that was achieved this morning.  The market is expecting a bearish report and shaking out weak longs before the report.  If we close below 825, we would expect to see a $7 handle sometime in the near futures.  A close back above 850 would likely kick-start a meaningful round of short covering towards....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

Wheat (December)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  December wheat futures finished yesterday’s session down 10 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 15 ½ cents.

 

Fundamentals:  Yesterday morning we joked about analysts suggesting concerns over tightening supplies being the catalyst for the rip higher on Monday, that proved to be a lazy scoop on their part in yesterday’s session.  If you’re new to these markets the one thing that you should know is that global supply and demand fundamentals don’t change hourly.  We also watch for trends in data and don’t put significant weight in any given number.  We continue to be bearish this market but have buttoned things up and would welcome a rally to sell again at higher prices (see technicals below). 

 

TechnicalsThe market has been swinging around our pivot pocket from 518 ½-523 ½ over the past two sessions.  Today’s close will likely set the tone for the rest of the week.  A close above here will likely encourage another leg higher.  The next resistance pocket comes in from 540 ¾-541 ¾, an area where we would plan on being aggressive sellers.  A close below the pivot pocket will likely....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

 

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