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Daily Grain Technicals & Fundamentals (9.17.18)

Published on: 13:25PM Sep 17, 2018

Corn (December)

 

Last Week’s Close: December corn futures finished Friday’s session up 1 cent, narrowly trimming the losses for the week to 16 cents. Futures traded in a range of 20 ¼ cent range f or the week. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that funds sold 3,353 futures through September 11th, expanding their net short position to 83,892 futures.

 

Fundamentals:  There is not a lot of new news to report from the weekend.  Market participants will continue to digest last week’s USDA report and make decisions based on their individual situation.  Now that we are expecting less market moving news, we will put a large majority of our focus on money flow and technicals, see the full technical breakdown below.

 

Technicals:  350 is the obvious psychological barrier everyone is watching this week.  Consecutive closes below doesn’t pressure funds to cover and would likely encourage further long liquidation.  A breakdown would put the market in uncharted territory, the next support pocket on the continuous chart comes in from 336 ¼-338 ¾.  If the market can stabilize and work off of these 350 levels, that may encourage funds to take some risk off the table, providing a short covering rally.  First resistance to start the week doesn’t come in until....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

Soybeans (November)

 

Last Week’s Close: November soybean futures finished Friday’s session down 2 ¾ cents, extending losses for the week to 14 ½ cents. Futures traded in a 30-cent range on the week. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 9,096 futures through September 11th, expanding their net short position to 78,895.

 

Fundamentals:  Last week we got word that the U.S. is ready to implement another $200 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods, this really shouldn’t come as any surprise.  There will likely be more headlines in the first half of the week, although it is expected, you can also expect to see knee jerk reactions in the market too.  From a short-term risk reward perspective, buyers have an advantage here (see full technical breakdown below).

 

Technicals:  The bears remain in control of the chart as the market lingers near contract lows, but the bulls have an opportunity to buy the low end of the range with a tight leash.  A break and close below 818 would likely accelerate the selling pressure and take us down to the dreaded $7 handle.  If the bulls can defend support, perhaps we see some relief come in to the market and take us back towards the top end of the recent trading range which we have had defined as....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

Wheat (December)

 

Last Week’s Close: December wheat futures finished Friday’s session up 14 ¾ cents, trimming losses for the week to just 1 ¼ cents. Futures traded in a 37 ½ cent range for the week. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 24,422 futures through September 11th, trimming their net long position to just 11,575.

 

Fundamentals:  The market started the Sunday night session on firm ground on follow through momentum from Friday’s surge higher.  The lack of new news has kept the spotlight on money flow and technicals, something that we will continue to put a big emphasis on going forward.  We still believe that the global supply and dismal demand will keep a lid on rallies, and rallies will likely continue to be sold. 

 

Technicals:  We made it very clear on Thursday that we believed there was an opportunity for a short covering rally after significant support held.  We saw that pop on Friday and additional momentum carry over into the Sunday night open.  Previous support from 518 ½-523 is now resistance.  517 was achieved in the overnight session and in this type of market, 517 is 518.  We are putting our bias back to bearish and would not be surprised to see....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

 

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.