Daily Grain Technicals & Fundamentals (9.18.18)

Published on: 13:11PM Sep 18, 2018

Corn (December)


Yesterday’s Close:  December corn futures finished yesterday’s session down 3 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 4 cents on the day. 


Fundamentals:  Export inspections yesterday morning came in at 1.03mmt, this was a relatively friendly number.  Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report showed corn ratings at 68% good/excellent, this was inline with what analysts were expecting.  Harvest is estimated to be 9% complete, 1% behind what traders were looking for.  The market continues to be under pressure as we stare down a big crop. 


Technicals:  Yesterday’s close below 350 was what the bulls were desperately trying to avoid.  The lower close keeps the net short funds in a comfortable position as the combines start to roll.  Now that we are officially in uncharted territory we have to look at the continuous chart for the next support levels, we see that coming in from 336 ¼-338 ¾.  Previous support now becomes resistance, the bulls need to reclaim ground on a closing basis above....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.


Soybeans (November)


Yesterday’s Close:  November soybean futures finished yesterday’s session down 5 ½ cents, trading in a range of 8 ¼ cents. 


Fundamentals:  Yesterday morning’s export inspections came in at 785mmt, this was inline with expectations.  The weekly crop progress report showed soybean harvest at 6% complete, this is ahead of last years pace and ahead of what analysts had been expecting.  The White House did announce another round of tariffs, this time to the tune of 10% on 200 billion dollars, this will go into effect on September 24th.  These headlines have been floating around for the last week, so this doesn’t really qualify as new news in our minds.  NOPA crush came in at 158.885 million bushels in August, this was lower than the 163.870 traders were expecting.


Technicals:  The chart looks dismal, making new lows in the overnight session as prices continue to linger towards the bottom end of our support pocket which we have outlined as 818-821 ¾.  A break and close below here could accelerate the selling and take us towards the dreaded $7 handle.  For the bulls to get new life they will need to achieve consecutive closes back above....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.


Wheat (December)


Yesterday’s Close:  December wheat futures finished yesterday’s session down 4 cents, trading in a range of 12 ¼ cents.


Fundamentals:  Yesterday’s weekly export inspections report came in at 14.9 million bushels, nothing to write home about.  The weekly Corp Progress report showed winter wheat planting at 13%, up from 5% last week and in line with the 5-year average of 14%.  Wheat has managed to gain some ground in the early morning trade, but without meaning full new news, this will likely be an opportunity for sellers to step back into the market. 


Technicals:  Previous support continues to be our first resistance pocket, this comes in from 518 ½-523 ½.  This pocket represents a key retracement on the year, the 200-day moving average, and trendline resistance.  This will be the pocket where bears will likely look to sell on the first test.  If the bulls manage to chew through resistance and can achieve consecutive closes above this pocket, that would....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.



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