Daily Grain Technicals & Fundamentals (9.21.18)

Published on: 13:00PM Sep 21, 2018

Corn (December)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  December corn futures finished yesterday’s session up 7 cents, trading in a range of 11 ½ cents on the day.  Funds were estimated buyers of 28,000 contracts on the day.

 

Fundamentals:  Export sales yesterday morning came in at 1,380,000 metric tons for 2018/2019 and 9,700 metric tons for 2019/2020.  This was better than expected and likely played a hand in sparking the surge higher yesterday.  There have been talks of some harvest delays in isolated areas, this has encouraged some shorts to cover and put a bit of a premium back in the market as we head into the weekend.  Today is October option expiration, a lot of times prices gravitate towards big round numbers into expiration.  Looking at the open interest on those options, we would thing 355 would be the lid on the market into the close.

 

Technicals:  Yesterday’s close above technical resistance is the silver lining the bulls have desperately been searching for.  That resistance now becomes significant support and will need to be defended by the bulls in order to encourage another round of short covering.  If the bulls can achieve this, we would not be surprised to see additional short covering take us towards....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

Soybeans (November)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  November soybeans finished yesterday’s session up 16 cents, trading in a range of 29 ¾ cents.  Funds were estimated buyers of 14,000 contracts on the day. 

 

Fundamentals:  Yesterday’s export sales came in at 917,600 metric tons for 2018/2019 and 80,000 metric tons of 2019/2020, this was towards the top end of expectations and helped the market get off to a good start for the day.  There was a lot of talk yesterday regarding the catalyst for the move, which in our mind is a fool’s errand.  Remember, price precedes news, this is where the old saying “buy the rumor, sell the news” comes from.  Much of this was technical short covering into option expiration, something we have been talking about all week. 

 

Technicals:  All week we have been talking about the 826 ¼ level and in yesterday morning’s Grain Express we said: “Yesterday’s move about above and close above our technical resistance pocket from 821 ¾-826 ¼ is a sigh of relief for the bull camp.  If the bulls can continue to stabilize above this pocket, we could see additional short covering take us back towards the top end of the range which we see as 850-853 ½.”.  This is exactly what we got.  If you were fortunate enough to buy and hold towards the bottom end of the range, this is the spot to....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

Wheat (December)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  December wheat finished yesterday’s session down ¾ of a cent, trading in a range of 9 ¾ cents.  Funds were estimated buyers of 2,000 contracts on the day.

 

Fundamentals:  Weekly export sales came in at 468,400 metric tons, this was within the range of expectations.  There has been little new news to continue the relief rally we have seen over the last week.  There is a Grain Stocks report next week which may have influence trade in the near term.  That report is on Friday 9/28/18 at 11 am cst.

 

Technicals:  From the risk reward perspective, this is the spot to sell in our opinion.  The market is stalling in our resistance pocket from 523 ½-525.  This pocket represents the 200-day moving average, a key retracement on the year, and would mark lower highs (the trend over the last month and a half).  The bears must defend this pocket to round out the week, a failure to do so could spark another round of buying.  If the bears are able to keep control, we would not be surprised to see prices dip back down towards....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

 

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.