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Daily Grain Technicals & Fundamentals (9.24.18)

Published on: 12:51PM Sep 24, 2018

Corn (December)

 

Last Week’s Close:  December corn futures finished Friday’s session up 4 ¾ cents at 357 ¼, trading in a range of 5 ½ cents, this put futures up 6 ¼ cents for the week.  Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that funds sold 74,532 futures through September 18th, expanding their net short position to 158,424 futures.

 

Fundamentals:  Corn managed to bounce back in the back half of last week’s trade on what was mostly short covering from funds in our minds.  There’s a good chance the market can see some continuation, but producer selling will likely keep a lid on anything significant.  Harvest continues to roll on through the Midwest and we expect to see a continuation of the trend, which is big yields.  Crop/harvest progress will be reported after the close, we are not expecting to see anything market moving there. 

 

Technicals:  The move higher last week is a silver lining for the bulls, but they should keep their expectations tempered.  It is possible that we see a continuation towards 366-369 ¾, but that will likely be the lid on the market.  This pocket represents the original breakdown point from the USDA report on August 12th, the 50-day moving average, and the top end of the most recent range.  On the support side of things, the bulls need to defend....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

Soybeans (November)

 

Last Week’s Close:  November soybean futures finished Friday’s session up 3 cents at 847 ¼, trading in a range of 8 ½ cents.  For the week, futures were up 19 ¼ cents.  Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that funds sold 3,322 futures through September 18th, expanding their net short position to 82,217 futures.

 

Fundamentals:  The market managed to rally last week on some positive headlines from Washington.  President Trump noted that he would slap additional tariffs on $275 billion of Chinese goods if China retaliated against U.S.  Farmers.  This likely helped spark short covering from funds who have been sitting comfortably short.  We would not be surprised to see a date set in the near future for the U.S. and China to resume trade talks. 

 

Technicals:  The bull camp caught a sigh of relief in the back half of last weeks trade.  The close back above 826 ¼ sparked the round of short covering they needed to take some weight off the shoulders.  For the time being, this is just a relief rally, the bulls will need to see follow trough momentum through the week to encourage an additional round of short covering.  The next line in the sand comes in at....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

Wheat (December)

 

Last Week’s Close:  December wheat futures finished Friday’s session up ¼ of a cent, trading in a range of 9 ¼ cents.  For the week, futures were up 10 ¾ cents.  Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 19,826 futures through September 18th, trimming their net long position to just 8,251 futures. 

 

Fundamentals:  Wheat was able to gain some ground last week thanks to short covering and spillover momentum from corn and beans.  We believe the broader fundamental landscape will continue to keep a lid on any attempt of a significant rally.  Demand is dismal, and supply is plentiful.

 

Technicals:  The market has made its way up against technical resistance, a pocket we have had defined as 523 ½-525.  This pocket represents a key retracement on the year, the 200-day moving average, and previously important price points.  If the bears can defend this pocket on a closing basis, we expect to see....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

 

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