Daily Livestock and Grain Technicals and Fundamentals
Sep 20, 2018
Yesterday’s Close: December corn futures finished yesterday’s session down 2 ½ cents, trading in a range of 3 ¾ cents.
Fundamentals: Corn caught a bit of a relief rally yesterday, thanks to spill over strength from short covering in the beans. Not much has changed on the fundamental landscape over the last 24 hours which will likely keep this nothing more than a relief rally. Yesterday’s weekly ethanol production report from the EIA came in at 1.051 million barrels per day, up 31 million barrels from the previous week. Export sales this morning came in at 1,380,000 metric tons for 2018/2019 and 9,700 metric tons for 2019/2020.
Technicals: Yesterday’s move higher was a silver lining for bulls but is nothing to write home about. The bears remain in full control until the bulls can achieve consecutive closes out above 352 ¼, if this were to happen it is likely we would see a bigger round of short covering kick start this market higher. A failure to do this keeps the bear camp at ease and leaves the potential open for a run at....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: November soybeans finished yesterday’s session up 16 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 18 ½ cents on the day.
Fundamentals: Soybeans saw a short covering relief rally yesterday on little new news. There have been some concerns regarding potential harvest delays in the coming weeks which may have played a role in shorts reducing risk and booking a healthy profit. Weekly export sales this morning came in at 917,600 metric tons for 2018/2019 and 80,000 metric tons of 2019/2020, this was towards the top end of expectations.
Technicals: Yesterday’s move about above and close above our technical resistance pocket from 821 ¾-826 ¼ is a sigh of relief for the bull camp. If the bulls can continue to stabilize above this pocket, we could see additional short covering take us back towards the top end of the range which we see as....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: December wheat futures finished yesterday’s session up 12 cents, trading in a 12 ¾ cent range for the day.
Fundamentals: Headlines of crop concerns in Australia and Argentina, along with short covering in corn and beans helped to support wheat futures yesterday. The concerns and reports are similar to what we have seen in the past, and more times than not those worries have been sold into. Export sales this morning came in at 468,400 metric tons, this was within the range of expectations.
Technicals: The relief rally has presented another excellent opportunity for the bears to dip their toes back in the water. From a risk reward perspective, this is the level to get aggressive if you have a bearish bias. There is significant resistance from 523 ½-525. This pocket represents a key retracement, the 200-day moving average, and would mark lower lows, a trend we have seen for the last month and a half now. A failure to breakout could take us back....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
LEV8: -.125 at 113.30, trading in a range of .55
LEZ8: -.10 at 118.00, trading in a range of .625
GFV8: -1.00 at 158.175, trading in a range of 1.95
GFX8: -1.00 at 158.025, trading in a range of 1.875
Cattle Commentary: Live cattle futures traded in their tightest range in what seems like a lifetime. Market participants have digested last weeks cash trade and seem somewhat skeptical that we will see that advance again. On top of the uncertainty around this week’s cash trade, we also have market participants sitting on their hands as we await Friday afternoon’s Cattle on Feed report. Early estimates are for cattle on feed to come in at 105.2%, placements at 104.1%, and marketings at 100.6%.
PM Boxed Beef / Choice / Select
Current Cutout Values: / 205.29 / 195.47
Change from prior day: / (.75) / (1.91
Choice/Select spread: / 9.82
Live Cattle (October)
Eyeballing it, it looks like live cattle finished the session in one of their tightest trading ranges for this contract’s life. The narrow range keeps a lot of the technicals intact form yesterday’s report. . If the bulls are able to chew through and close above 114.075-114.75, we could see a swift move higher with contract highs of 117.60 being the next significant level. On the flip side....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Feeder Cattle (October)
October feeder cattle have been bumping their head up against Friday’s highs the past two sessions, failing to achieve that next leg higher. As of now that does not mean the market is over, the market is forming what is looking more like a bull flag. The breakout Friday is the flag pole, the past two sessions are a consolidating wedge (flag). This could be setting up for another flagpole looking candle. If the bulls fail to get that next move higher, we could see prices....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Lean Hogs (October)
October lean hogs surged higher today which all started with a gap higher on the open. Futures finished the day up 2.625 at 59.075, trading in a range of 2.05 on the day. The move higher takes the market to our next resistance level at 59.65. A conviction close above here opens the door for a move towards....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
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