Daily Livestock Technicals (8.14.18)
Aug 14, 2018
LEV8: .675 at 108.825, trading in a range of .95
LEZ8: .625 at 112.625, trading in a range of .95
GFU8: .075 at 148.525, trading in a range of 1.475
GFV8: .05 at 149.00, trading in a range of 1.325
Cattle Commentary: It was a bit of a snooze fest for majority of the day as market participants waited for new news to give us new direction. We have heard reports of 108-109 live trade and 173 dressed to start the week. As mentioned in yesterday’s report we are looking at this as a silver lining, these prices set the bar extremely low and the market has digested that making it easier for the market to over deliver. Tomorrows Fed Cattle Exchange has 488 head offered, never a crazy number but another line in the sand to keep an eye on. Boxed beef continued to work higher again this afternoon.
PM Boxed Beef / Choice / Select
Current Cutout Values: / 209.64 / 201.27
Change from prior day: / 1.21 / 1.61
Choice/Select spread: / 8.37
Live Cattle (October)
October live cattle fought and held technical support today which we have had defined as 107.50-107.90. This pocket represents a key retracement on the year and the 100-day moving average. More importantly, this pocket also contains trend line support from May 17th, June 15th, July 11th, and yesterday’s low. The last three times we tested this trend line we have seen the market springboard higher, that was not the case today. The bulls need to see more conviction ASAP to encourage a move back towards the top end of the range. The market stopped right at the 50-day moving average today, but the more meaningful barrier comes in at 109.55, this represents the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (middle of the range) for the year. A conviction close above here opens the door for a run back at....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Feeder Cattle (October)
Please note that we have switched to October futures this week, this will be the more active contract. The market has been treading water just above our support pocket from 147.35-147.65 for the last five sessions. This pocket represents the 50% retracement from the February highs to the April lows and the 100-day moving average. If the bulls cannot get something going soon, we would expect to see this pocket give way confirming the head and shoulders pattern and opening the door for a whoosh lower. The next pocket we see coming in from....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Lean Hog Commentary and Technicals (October)
October lean hogs finished the day up .30 at 51.95, trading in a range of 1.45. As of right now this is a poor excuse for a relief rally. The inability to build sustainable momentum following last Thursday’s limit up move should be a caution flag for buyers. The bulls want to see stabilization via consecutive closes above....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
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