Daily Livestock Technicals (8.6.18)

Published on: 22:09PM Aug 06, 2018

Last Trades:

LEV8: -.125 at 111.875, trading in a range of .925

LEZ8: -.05 at 115.45, trading in a range of .85

GFQ8: -.75 at 152.10, trading in a range of 1.225

GFU8: -.95 at 152.075, trading in a range of 1.775


Cattle Commentary:  With August live cattle officially in delivery mode, we are turning our attention to October and December live cattle.  Cash cattle late Friday afternoon came in at 114 live and 180 dressed, this was 2-3 higher over the previous week and well above the light trade early in the week.  You would think that this would put a pop in volatility, but it was a rather quiet day.  The market had a hard time accelerating on the open despite the friendly headlines, a sign that Friday’s move higher on the board was likely front running higher cash.  This is often a caution flag which could lead to long liquidation, but the bulls did a decent job in defending prices.  Fat cattle continue to look friendly, but a pullback would be welcomed.  Feeders have looked better than fats on the chart over the last two months, but it appears they are running out of gas as grains find footing.


PM Boxed Beef / Choice / Select

Current Cutout Values: / 205.68 / 198.33

Change from prior day: / .93 / 1.24

Choice/Select spread: / 7.35


Tech Talk


Live Cattle (October)


October live cattle traded in one of their tightest ranges in two months today as the bulls and the bears both sit on their hands against the top end of the recent range.  Tomorrow will be a pivotal session in setting the tone for the week.  If the bulls can achieve a true breakout above resistance, the market could really run.  Previous resistance now becomes first support, we see that as 110.85-111.45, this pocket represents the 200-day moving average and a key retracement from the November highs to the April lows.  A breakdown below here sparks....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.


Feeder Cattle (August)


Feeder cattle have continued to hold support very well, but the market seems to be struggling to build higher highs in convincing fashion, this could be the beginning of at least a near term top.  If the market cannot chew through 155-156 with conviction, we would expect to see the market come into a more defined trading range.  A breakout above would likely take us to....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.


Lean Hog Commentary and Technicals (October)


Sell any rally attempt seems to be a common theme in the lean hogs, especially for those more active in day trading.  Supply concerns continue to hang a cloud over the market.  October lean hogs finished the day down .525 at 50.25, trading in a range of 1.975.  For traders who want to be long the market, we continue to error on the side of caution.  Call options are a great way to get exposure while.....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.


If you have any questions or would like to discuss the markets in more depth, please do not hesitate to call or email.


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