Daily Livestock Technicals and Fundamentals (9.10.18)
Sep 10, 2018
LEV8: .425 at 110.375, trading in a range of .80
LEZ8: .20 at 114.625, trading in a range of .65
GFV8: -.325 at 152.625, trading in a range of 1.20
GFX8: .20 at 152.925, trading in a range of .825
Cattle Commentary: October live cattle opened higher, traded both sides of that open, and finished the day where we started. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 495 futures through September 4th, expanding their net short position to 941. Cash cattle was firm from the previous week but wasn’t anything to write home about. The bulk of last week’s cash trade cane in from 107-108. Early calls for this weak are steady. The positive price action above technicial resistance has started to neutralize the chart. Consecutive closes above resistance would start to give the bulls the advantage, see the full technical breakdown below.
PM Boxed Beef / Choice / Select
Current Cutout Values: / 206.30 / 198.93
Change from prior day: / (.26) / 1.84
Choice/Select spread: / 7.37
Live Cattle (October)
October live cattle poked their head above our resistance pocket from 110.35-110.575, which we defined in our weekly Weekend Ag Update. The price action following the move higher is as neutral as it gets, it appears market participants are sitting on their hands until we see more conviction in either way. We have been trading in a range for the last two months, we will continue to play that until we see a new fundamental catalyst give this market a breakout or breakdown. From the risk/reward perspective, we still like....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Feeder Cattle (October)
October feeders tried to grind higher but lacked the conviction to attract a new wave of buying interest. The market has been a lot more constructive over the last week, but we are not 100% sold on the long side at these levels. For clients who want to be short, we have been dipping the toes in against these resistance levels. In last week’s Livestock Roundup reports we defined that resistance pocket as 153.20-153.45. Consecutive closes above here opens the door for a run at....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Lean Hog Commentary and Technicals (October)
October lean hogs finished the session up .40 at 56.05, trading in a range of 1.40. Despite reports of new outbreaks, the deferreds have been under pressure. December futures finished the session down .925 and February down .825. We have been talking about establishing a longer-term long position in the deferred and continue to like that thesis. Proper sizing and leverage are extremely important when setting yourself up for a longer-term trade. We also like the idea of using options, whether to protect futures position or buy outright calls. Options are a way to give you good exposure with limited risk, making these intraday/intraweek swings easier to sit through. As mentioned in our interview with RFD-TV this morning, trying to find meaningful technical levels on the October chart is....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
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