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Full Version of our Weekend Wrap Up

Published on: 18:06PM Nov 18, 2018

Weekend Wrap Up

 

November 17, 2018

 
 

Corn

 

Last Week’s Close:  December corn futures finished Friday’s session down 2 ¾ of a cent, extending losses for the week to 4 ½ cents.  For the week, futures traded in a 9 ¼ cent range.  Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds bought 1,271 futures through November 13th, extending their net long position to 15,833 futures.

 

Quick Take:  Corn futures finished the week on softer ground, this is actually a silver lining for us. We often say, price is what you pay, and value is what you get. We have been wanting to be more aggressive on the buy-side but have been patient for a pullback. Our significant technical support pocket remains intact from 360 ¼-363 remains intact and a “buy zone”, not only for bulls but also a spot for bears to look at reducing a portion of their position. On the resistance side of things, there is not a whole lot until 375 ½-379.

To get our daily reports emailed to you each morning, Click HERE or email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com

 

Soybeans

 

Last Week’s Close:  January soybean futures finished Friday’s session up 3 ¾ cents, extending gains for the week to 6 ½ cents.  For the week, futures traded in a 20 ¼ cent range.  Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 10,619 contracts through November 13th, extending their net short position to 49,485 futures.

 

Quick Take:  We have been cautiously optimistic on soybeans over the past few weeks as it appears the funds have been less aggressive in adding to their short position. We have seen the market move several times over the past week on comments that trade with China is going somewhere, only to be walked back in the following 1-24 hours. Though the statements are walked back, prices remain stable. Technical support to start the week comes in from 875 ½-879 ½, this pocket represents the 100-day moving average, previously important price points, and the 50% retracement from the July 31st highs to the September 18th lows.

To get our daily reports emailed to you each morning, Click HERE or email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com

 

Wheat

 

Last Week’s Close:  December wheat futures finished Friday’s session up 1 ¼ cents, extending gains for the week to 4 ½ cents.  For the week, futures traded in a 19 ¾ cent range.  Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds bought 13,440 contracts through November 13th, trimming their net short position to 28,525 futures.

 

Quick Take:  Chicago wheat is trying its hardest to form a bottom but has been faced with severe headwinds from a stronger U.S. dollar and a struggling Kansas City wheat contract. If these two start to revert, we would expect to see a gust of wind in the sails for Chicago wheat prices. $5.00 is a must hold level and represents a solid risk/reward set up to the buy-side. A break and close below though would open the door for a retest of the October 25th lows of 485 ½. On the resistance side of things, the bulls want to chew through the 50-day moving average at 511 ¾. The more significant resistance pocket comes in from 519-520 ¾.

To get our daily reports emailed to you each morning, Click HERE or email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com

 

 Live Cattle

 

Last Week’s Close: December live cattle finished Friday’s session up .275, extending gains for the week to .95.  For the week, futures traded in a range of 2.25.  Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 8,752 contracts through November 13th, trimming their net long position to 51,177 futures.

 

Quick Take:  It is a shortened week but that won’t prevent an exciting week in the markets from taking place. We will get the monthly Cattle on Feed and Cold Storage report at 11am cst on Wednesday. For those looking for bigger moves in the market, you have been at a standstill for the last week. For those who keep expectations tempered, you’ve had some great opportunities to play a fairly well-defined range. We will continue to look at playing that range until we get a breakout or a breakdown. As far as our bias goes, the bears have a technical advantage.

To get our daily reports emailed to you each morning, Click HERE or email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com

 

Feeder Cattle

 

Last Week’s Close:  January feeder cattle futures finished Friday’s session down 1.40, trimming gains for the week to 2.55.  For the week, futures traded in a range of 5.40.  Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 2,293 contracts through November 13th, extending their net short position to 4,924 futures.

 

Quick Take:  Feeder cattle were technically sound last week, holding significant support near 143, which represents a key retracement from the April lows to the October 2nd highs. The market then found relief to 148, representing another key retracement, previous support, and the breakdown point from November 5th. If the bulls can achieve consecutive closes above here that would neutralize our bias, but as of now, the bears have an edge as the trend of lower highs and lower lows continues.

To get our daily reports emailed to you each morning, Click HERE or email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com

 

 Lean Hogs

 

Last Week’s Close:  February lean hog futures finished Friday’s session limit up (3.00), extending gains for the week to 7.20.  For the week, futures traded in a range of 7.45.  Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 1,048 contracts through November 13th, trimming their net long position to 29,302 futures. 

 

Quick Take:  This has undoubtably been a tough market to be in with a longer-term position, both for the bulls and the bears. We have seen a week of buying followed buy a week of selling repeated several times over it seems. We continue to believe that the long side offers an incredible opportunity, but that doesn’t mean sit long an close your eyes, risk needs to be managed. Over the past few weeks we have recommended keeping a core position, while reducing against resistance points. There are several ways to do that, sell calls against futures, buy puts, or reduce futures. The significant resistance pocket we are watching comes in from 68.075-68.725. A conviction close above here would be considered a technical breakout and it would likely encourage momentum traders to jump on board.

To get our daily reports emailed to you each morning, Click HERE or email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com

 

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.