Grain Express Weekend Edition (1.20.18)
Jan 20, 2018
If you missed our weekly “2 Minute Drill” from the floor of the CME: Watch now!
Friday’s Close: March corn futures finished Fridays session up 1 ¼ of a cent, trading in a range of 2 ¾ cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 3,500 contracts on the session.
For the Week: Corn finished the week 5 ¼ cents higher, the biggest weekly gain since the beginning of July. That really puts things into perspective when you think of how bland this market has been. Fridays Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 4,360 contracts (through Tuesday), this puts their net short at 226,876 futures and option contracts. The record net short is just a stones throw away at 230,556.
Going Forward: Though it was a constructive week, bulls need to temper their expectations. Prices are at the top end of the range which we feel provides an opportunity to the short side with limited risk. 350 has been a magnet for the market recently, not just the March contract but also the December 17 contract. We continue to believe we can play the tight range on either side of 350 until we get a new fundamental catalyst to give us a new directional move other than sideways. We will have the updated technicals in Monday mornings Grain Express. You can sign up for a trial of 1 or all 5 of our daily commodity reports by clicking this link.
Friday’s Close: March soybean futures finished the session up 2 ½ cents, trading in a range of 10 ¾ cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 5,000 contracts on the session.
For the Week: Beans finished the week up 12 ½ cents, closing higher each of the four days (shortened trading week), trading in a range of 21 ½ cents. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 9,997 futures, putting their net short position at 105,705 (through Tuesday) which is one of the largest on record.
Going Forward: Last week we talked about 984-986 being our target and likely failing on the first test, that is what we got on Fridays floor open. If you’re long short dated options, you need to take advantage of opens like that instead of being paralyzed by hope. We think this price action could lead to some additional long liquidation in the short term but concerns in Argentina could help limit that. Also, funds don’t typically hold large short positions in soybeans for long like they do for corn/wheat. We will have our updated technicals out in Monday mornings Grain Express. You can sign up for a trial of 1 or all 5 of our daily commodity reports by clicking this link.
Friday’s Close: March wheat futures finished the session down 1 ½ cents, trading in a range of 5 ¾ cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 2,000 contracts on the session.
For the Week: Wheat futures finished the week up 2 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 14. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 13,453 futures, this puts their net short at 148,969 (through Tuesday). This is one of their larger short positions on record.
Going Forward: Wheat futures managed to regain some of the losses from the previous weeks USDA report, but the bears remain in control of the market. The weaker USD and weather concerns have offered support this week but we expect the USD to continue lower (intermediate to longer term) and weather concerns dissipate. Lower prices cure lower prices and we think that we are not to that point yet. We will have our updated technicals out in Monday mornings Grain Express. You can sign up for a trial of 1 or all 5 of our daily commodity reports by clicking this link.
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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.