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Grain Market Update (2.16.18)

Published on: 14:23PM Feb 27, 2018

CORN (May)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  May futures finished up 2 ½ cents on the day, trading in a range of 4 cents.  Funds were estimated buyers of 15,500 contracts.

 

Fundamentals:  Yesterday’s export inspections came in at 1,305,853 metric tons, this was larger than the expected range from 800,000-1,100,000 metric tons; last weeks came in at 938,298 metric tons.  There was a sale of 125,000 reported to “unknown” for the 2018/2018 marketing year.  Weather in South America has been the “talk of the town” (ag community) for the past several weeks and will likely continue to be so.  However, we will start seeing attention shift towards next months Prospective Plantings report.  If we continue to see the market work higher, we could see hose acreage estimates increase.  At the end of the day, the American Farmer loves to plant corn, and they’ve become damn good at it too.

 

Technicals:  Higher lows and higher highs keeps the bulls in good shape, but they may need a little help to get out above technical resistance.  Our first resistance pocket remains intact from 379-382 ¾, if the bulls can achieve a conviction close above this pocket, it is a green light for the next leg higher which we have outlined as....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

SOYBEANS (May)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  May soybeans finished down 2 cents, trading in a range of 13 ¾ cents on the day.  Funds were estimated to have been neutral on the buys and sells.

Fundamentals:  Yesterday’s export sales came in at 761,961 metric tons, this was within the estimated range of 600,000-900,000 metric tons; last week came in at 960,066 metric tons.  There was a sale of 132,000 metric tons to China for the 2017/2018 marketing year.  Weather forecasts continue to be dry with little hope for relieve in the next 1-2 weeks.  If we see those forecasts turn wetter, we would expect to see a lot of pressure come in to the market.  The meal market continues to hold a bid which has helped support beans, we will continue to keep an eye on this as it will likely be a trigger for beans.  As with corn, chatter will start picking up with regards to next month’s Prospective Plantings report.  In our opinion, producers need to be proactive at these prices.

 

Technicals:  The market had a bit of a shakeout fake-out yesterday as shorts were squeezed followed by selling pressure.  The market stalled out at the first end of our resistance pocket which we outlined in yesterdays report as 1059-1065, this level remains intact, but the bears would rather not see a retest.  On the support side of things, we have adjusted some things slightly with....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

WHEAT (May)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  May wheat futures finished the session up 9 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 9 cents (gap) on the day.  Funds were estimated buyers of 7,000 contracts.

 

Fundamentals:  Yesterday morning’s export inspections came in at 280,243 metric tons, this was below the expected range from 325,000-525,000 metric tons; last weeks came in at 422,298 metric tons.  Wheat continues to be supported by concerns on crop damage.  We continue to keep a close eye on the Kansas City contract as that will likely be the leader.  Yesterdays crop progress report showed that 12% of the crop is in good/excellent condition, this is a 2% drop from last month’s report.  Forecasts are suggesting that areas that need rain, will likely have to wait.  On the macro side of things, we continue to keep a close eye on currency fluctuations as it will likely have an affect on exports with time.    

 

Technicals:  The market has been working higher over the past few sessions after finding support from the bottom end of the range.  If you look back over the last month, prices are trapped in a 20(ish) cent range as technicians wait for a breakout or a break down.  Our first resistance pocket remains intact from 478-481 ½, a break and close below opens the door for a run towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 

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