Grain Market Update (2.22.18)

Published on: 14:02PM Feb 22, 2018

CORN (March)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  March corn futures finished yesterdays session unchanged, trading in a range of 4 ¼ cents on the session.

 

Fundamentals:  Market participants are searching for new news on the wires but there is not much there.  We continue to watch weather in South America, Argentina is expected to stay mostly dry over the next week and a half.  We will be watching soybeans and wheat as well, as their price action could spill over into corn futures.  The main thing we have been keeping an eye on this week is March option expiration.  360 is now the strike of interest for us as it would do the most damage in terms of premium evaporation.  There are 33,406 in the money calls there and 30,501 puts. 

 

Technicals:  Not much has changed on the chart over the past 24 hours.  Technical resistance remains intact from 368 ½-370, we believe a break and close above will extend the rally towards 373 ½-376.  First technical support comes in from 364 ¼-364 ½, a close below could lead to long liquidation towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

SOYBEANS (March)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  March soybean futures finished yesterdays session up 8 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 19 cents on the day.

 

Fundamentals:  Weather in Argentina continues to be the key catalyst market participants are watching.  Lack of moisture in the forecast over the next week to week and a half have kept a bid in the market this week.  If those rains do come the risk is to the downside now that funds have established a net long position.  We are keeping a very close eye on the soybean meal market as that could be the trigger for beans; Argentina accounts for nearly half of the worlds shipments for meal.  There are some polls circulating with regards to acres planted this year those estimates are ranging from 88.509-91.512 million acres. 

 

Technicals:  The market tested and held first support yesterday, this came in from 1020-1027 and was previously significant resistance.  If the bulls continue to defend this pocket on a closing basis they remain in control and we could see the market, make a run towards 1044 ½-1050 ½.  Keep in mind that March futures are going off the board next week, so we will be moving to the May contract (currently at an 11-cent premium).  We would not be surprised to see the market maintain a bid into the weekend due to it being a weather market.  We expect to see...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

WHEAT (March)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  March wheat futures finished yesterdays session down 1 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 6 ½ cents on the day.

 

Fundamentals:  Chances of rain in the near future for wheat country has put a lid on the recent rally as concerns of disaster ease.  We will continue to keep a close eye on the Kansas City contract as that will likely be the leader.  Reuters released a poll that showed the estimated wheat acres for 2018 from 44-48.5 million acres.  Currency volatility continues to be something that commodity traders as a whole will continue to watch, this will have an affect on the USD and exports.  Due to the shortened week, export sales will be released tomorrow.

 

Technicals:  The failure to post higher highs at the end of last week and through this week has some of the bulls nervous, to the point they are taking gains off the table.  First support this morning comes in from 435 ½-440 ¼.  This is a little wider pocket than we would typically want, but there is a lot of significance in it.  This pocket contains the 50 and 100 day moving average as well as a previously significant resistance and support level.  A break and close below this puts the ball back in the bears court.  The bulls need to see a close back above....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

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