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Grain Market Update (3.1.18)

Published on: 14:07PM Mar 01, 2018

CORN (May)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  May corn finished yesterdays session up 2 cents, trading in a range of 6 ½ on the day.  Funds were estimated buyers of 17,500 contracts on the day.

 

Fundamentals:  Ethanol production came in at 1.044 million barrels per day, this was down from the previous weeks read of 1.068 million barrels per day.  Though this was a reduction, production remains stronger than some had been expecting.  This mornings export sales came in at 1,753,000 metric tons, this compares to the expected range from 1,000,000-1,400,000 metric tons; last weeks came in at 1,555,410 metric tons.  December new crop closed above $4 for the first time since September. 

 

Technicals:  May corn futures got above the 200-day moving average yesterday since August which accelerated the move above the top end of our resistance pocket at 382 ¾.  Though it was encouraging for the bulls, they could not maintain that ground and ended the session in our resistance pocket from 379-382 ¾.  If the bulls can achieve consecutive closes above this pocket, we would expect to see an extension towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

SOYBEANS (May)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  May soybeans finished the day up 6 cents, trading in a range of 13 ¼ on the day.  Funds were estimated to have been buyers of 10,000 contracts.

Fundamentals:  There was a sale of 250,000 metric tons for “unknown” for the 2017/2018 marketing year.  This mornings export sales came in at 980,000 metric tons, this compares to the expected range of 400,000-700,000 metric tons.  There are some rains in the forecast for the next 2 weeks in Argentina, as of right now it appears it would be enough to stop things from getting worse, but not enough to improve; this will continue to be monitored very closely.  Soymeal has continued to be the leader and will continue to be watched; last nights open got the bears a little excited but things have since rebounded to trade closer to unchanged. 

 

Technicals:  Soybeans continue to linger at the top end of our resistance pocket which remains at 1059-1065.  If the bulls can achieve a breakout, there’s not a lot stopping prices from running towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

WHEAT (May)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  May wheat futures finished yesterday’s session up 15 cents, trading in a range of 23 cents on the day.  Funds were estimated buyers of 20,000 contracts. 

 

Fundamentals:  May wheat had its best close in 5 months thanks to technical breakout on the back of declining crop conditions in the Southern Plains.  There are a few showers in the forecast for Kansas, Texas, and Oklahoma, but it appears to be more of a sprinkle than anything significant.  Wheat export sales this morning came in at 236,300 metric tons, this compares to the expected range from 200,000-500,000 metric tons; last weeks read came in at 328,859 metric tons. 

 

Technicals:  The market broke out in convincing fashion yesterday above the 200-day moving average, an indicator that this contract has never closed above.  This led to a short squeeze on funds which accelerated prices towards the psychologically significant $5 handle.  The 50-day moving average is likely to cross over the 100 day this week, this is known as a “golden cross” and is looked at as a bullish signal.  The RSI is nearing “overbought” levels here with a reading of 68.21; keep in mind that we have seen the RSI above 80 in the last year, shorts might want to consider being patient just yet.  If the market is able to hold support, we expect to see prices work towards our next resistance level which comes in at....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

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