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Grain Market Update (3.16.18)

Published on: 12:59PM Mar 16, 2018

 

CORN (May)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  May corn futures closed 1 ¾ cents lower, trading in a range of 5 ¼ cents on the day.  Funds were estimated sellers of 8,000 contracts for the session.

Fundamentals:  Yesterday export sales came in at 2,605,029 metric tons, not only was this was well above the expected range of 1,300,000-1,600,000 metric tons, it was also the largest in 23 years.   Better exports have been a growing trend which has obviously helped support prices recently.  Rosario Grain Exchange lowered their production estimates for Argentina, they have them at 32.0 mmt, this is down from the 35mmt they previously estimated; USDA has production at 36 mmt.  Attention will start to turn towards weather in the US and the Prospective Plantings report at the end of the month.  We will start compiling those estimates and have them available over the next two weeks.

 

Technicals:  The market is off of the recent highs in what wee see as a healthy pull back.  The must hold level for the bulls to keep in control comes in from....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

SOYBEANS (May)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  May soybeans finished the day up 10 cents, trading in a range of 19 ¼ cents.  Funds were estimated buyers of 9,000 contracts for the day.

Fundamentals: Export sales yesterday morning came in at 1,346,931 metric tons, this was towards the top end of the expected range from 900,000-1,400,000 metric tons.  Though this was a good number, the bulls need to see better than expected to get on pace with the USDA.  Yesterday’s NOPA crush report came in at 153.719 million bushels, this was well above the estimated 149.43 million bushels.  The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered production in Argentina to 40 mmt, this is down from their previous estimate of 46mmt; USDA has them at 47mmt.  As with corn, attention will start shifting towards developments in the states.  Weather will start to be watched more closely into and after the Prospective Plantings report at the end of the month. 

 

Technicals:  Soybeans managed to catch a bid off of technical support that we have had outlined as 1027-1030.  That momentum has carried over into the overnight and early morning trade.  We are currently viewing this as a relief rally that should be sold.  The bears will remain in control until we see a close back above 1049-1055.  A retest of 1027-1030 would likely fail and open the door to additional long liquidation from the funds, the next support pocket comes in from....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

WHEAT (May)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  March wheat futures closed 10 cents lower, trading in a range of 17 ¼ cents for the day.  Funds were estimated to have been sellers of 7,000 contracts on the session.

 

Fundamentals:  Export sales for wheat came in at 219,552 metric tons this was below the low end of the expected range which came in from 250,000-650,000 metric tons.  The poor export sales have been something that has acted as a headwind for the market in recent months.  There were some rains on the radar that could over relief in some areas, but it looks like the major concern areas are going to fall short. 

 

Technicals:  As mentioned through the week, the inability to spring board off of support led to caution flags. The breakdown below key technical support from 478-481 ½ opens the door to....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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