Grain Market Update (3.19.18)
Mar 19, 2018
Last Weeks Close: May corn futures traded 8 cents lower for the week, trading in a range of 12 ¾ cents. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds bought 74,029 futures from March 6th to March 13th, this puts their net long at 237,643 futures. To put the funds buying spree in perspective, funds have bought roughly 2.26 billion bushels of corn in the last 7 weeks.
Fundamentals: Corn futures have taken it on the chin in the overnight and early morning session as spillover pressure from wheat and beans seems to be the main driver. Attention will start shifting towards the Prospective Plantings report which is due out at the end of the month. Some of those estimates are starting to be released with a private analyst putting US planted corn acres at 88.514 million acres, this would be a bigger drop than most would expect. It will be something to keep a very close eye on going forward. One thing we do know is that the American Farmer loves to plant corn, and they’ve become really really really good at it too.
Technicals: There has been some technical damage done thanks to the overnight and early morning trade. The market is now testing our significant support pocket which we have had listed as 379-382 ¾. This pocket represents the 200-day moving average along with previous resistance and the original breakout point from the end of February. A close below this pocket could encourage additional long liquidation towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Last Weeks Close: May soybean futures traded 11 ¼ cents higher through last week, trading in a range of 27 cents. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds bought 22,943 contracts from March 6th-March 13th, this puts their net long position at 200,774. To put the funds buying spree in perspective, funds have bought 1.56 billion bushels in the last 8 weeks.
Fundamentals: Soybean futures have been under pressure all night and into the early morning trade as better weather has been realized in some areas. Whether or not it’s too little to late or not will be seen in the coming weeks. We continue to keep an eye on the soybean meal market as we have seen that market come well of its highs, if that continues to break down you can expect to see soybeans following suit. Brazils soybean harvest is roughly 60% complete which is inline with historical pace. Argentina’s harvest will likely start this week. Market participants will start turning their focus towards the Prospective Plantings report on March 29th.
Technicals: The market tested our first resistance pocket on Friday and failed which has helped amplify the pressure in the overnight and early morning trade. That marks lower highs and we are still looking for lower lows to come next. 1027-1030 is first technical support, this was tested and held perfectly last week. Another test would likely lead to a failure and additional long liquidation towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Last Weeks Close: Wheat futures traded 22 cents lower last week, trading in a range of 31 cents. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that funds sold 5,766 contracts from March 6th-March 14th, putting their net short position at 27,366.
Fundamentals: Rain makes grain and that’s what some key areas have gotten over the weekend as concerns over the drought have been eased. Crop conditions in some of the key growing areas will likely see another decline until the affects of the rain can be measured more clearly. Parts of Oklahoma and Texas are seeing rain work itself into the radar for later in the week too. We will continue to keep a close eye on the KC contract as it will continue to be the leader.
Technicals: There was a lot of technical damage done over the last week which has certainly changed the tide. The market has erased a lot of gains as prices make their way back to previous support from 451-456 ¼. This pocket represents previous support in February as well as the 100-day moving average, a breakdown below opens the door for a run at....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
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