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Grain Market Update (3.22.18)

Published on: 12:40PM Mar 22, 2018

CORN (May)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  May corn futures finished the session up ½ cent, trading in a range of 2 cents.  Funds were estimated buyers of 2,000 contracts on the day.

 

Fundamentals:  USDA announced a sale of 138,000 metric tons to South Korea yesterday.  Yesterday’s weekly EIA report showed that ethanol production increased by 24,000 barrels to 1.049 million barrels per day; this is slightly above the 1.044 mb for the same time last year.  Today would normally be export sales day but that has been pushed back to tomorrow due to weather in DC (snow day).  Expectations in tomorrows report range from 1,400,000-2,100,000 metric tons.  Attention will continue to be on next week’s Prospective Planting and Quarterly Stocks report. 

 

Technicals: Corn is trying to form a near term bottom off of that support pocket we have been referencing which comes in from 371 ¾-373.  This pocket represents a key Fibonacci retracement level that has acted as previously significant support and resistance, along with the 50-day moving average.  The market is now making a run at first resistance which we have as 378 ¾; this represents the 200-day moving average and was a breakout point at the end of last month.   The more significant pocket the bulls want to reclaim on a closing basis comes in from....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

SOYBEANS (May)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  May soybean futures finished the day up 2 cents, trading in a range of 12 ½ on the day.  Funds were estimated buyers of 2,500 contracts.

 

Fundamentals:  Price action was choppy yesterday due to the lack of new news hitting the wires, we would not be surprised to see that carry over into today’s session.  Today would normally be export sales day but that has been pushed back to tomorrow due to weather in DC (snow day).  Expectations in tomorrow’s report range from 700,000-1,400,000 metric tons.  President Trump is expected to announce new tariffs on China today and expected no later than tomorrow.  There are some concerns that China, our biggest buyer of beans, could retaliate with soybeans in the cross hairs. 

 

Technicals:  The market is seeing the relief rally continue but having a hard time getting above our first resistance pocket which we had outlined as 1038 ¼-1041 ¾.  These recent rallies have been sold into and we are expecting that trend of lower highs and lower lows to continue.  The bulls need to see a close back above 1049-1055 to change the tide.  On the support side of things, first support has widened a bit from 1016-1021 ¾.  A breakdown below that we believe would accelerate the liquidation down towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

WHEAT (May)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  May wheat futures finished the session up 1 cent, trading in a range of 7 ¾ cents on the day.  Funds were estimated sellers of 1,000 contracts.

 

Fundamentals:  Wheat markets are trying to find some footing here after the recent pressure.  As with the other grains, there has not been much new news on the wire which has provided the market the opportunity to consolidate and catch its breath.  We will continue to keep a close eye on weather conditions in wheat country and will be watching the KC contract as it will likely be the leader.  Today would normally be export sales day but that has been pushed back to tomorrow due to weather in DC (snow day).  Expectations in tomorrow’s report range from 100,000-300,000 metric tons.

 

Technicals:  The consolidation and a bit of a relief rally is a nice silver lining for the bulls but they should not get too comfortable until they can achieve a close back above resistance, we are looking at a pocket from....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels. 

 

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