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Grain Market Update (3.29.18)

Published on: 12:45PM Mar 29, 2018

CORN (May)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  May corn futures finished the session down ¾ of a cent, trading in a range of 3 cents for the day.  Funds were estimated sellers of 4,500 contracts.

Fundamentals:  Today is the day many market participants have been waiting for for a long time.  The Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks report will be released today at 11 am cst.  US Corn acres are expected to come in shy of 90 million acres.  The quarterly stocks number is expected to come in around 8.710 billion bushels which is at the top of the charts for being one of the biggest for this March 1st report.  Export Sales this morning came in a 1,353,100 metric tons, this compares to the expected range from 1,200,000-1,500,000 metric tons.  Yesterdays weekly EIA ethanol numbers showed that production declined from 1.049 million barrels per day to 1.039 mbpd.  Keep in mind that it is a shortened week which also aligns with end of month and end of quarter, this could keep things interesting into the long weekend. 

 

Technicals:  Not much has changed over the last 48 hours as the market continues to linger in between technical support and technical resistance.  Today’s report could be that catalyst to give us a breakout or a breakdown.  We remain friendly on the market but need to see prices work higher into the weekend.  We are spending more time than we would like at the bottom end of support.  Bulls want to see a close back above the 200-day moving average at 377 ¾, but the more significant pocket to close above comes in from....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

SOYBEANS (May)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  May soybean futures finished the day down 2 cents, trading in a range of 8 ¼ for the day.  Funds were estimated sellers of 4,000 contracts on the day.

 

Fundamentals:  Today we will get some new news on the wires (not talking about export sales), in the form of the Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks report, this will be released at 11 am cst.  Planted acres is expected to come in near 91 million acres.  Quarterly stocks are expected to be around 2.030 billion bushels; like corn, this would be towards the top of the “all time” list for this report.  Once we get this report behind us, all eyes will be on weather here in the states.  Keep in mind that it is the end of the month and quarter which could lead to some position squaring from funds before the long weekend.  This mornings export sales came in at 317,500 metric tons, this compares with the expected range from 600,000-900,000 metric tons. 

 

Technicals:  The market grinded slightly lower yesterday and is seeing some follow through on that in the early morning hours.  First technical support continues to come in 1006 ½-1009 ¾.  We are anticipating this pocket to give way; a bearish USDA report could be the catalyst to do that.  The next levels of support come in at....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

WHEAT (May)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  May wheat future finished the session down 3 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 8 cents on the day.  Funds were estimated sellers of 2,500 contracts. 

Fundamentals:  This mornings USDA report will be released at 11 am cst and is expected to move the market.  The Quarterly Stocks report is expected to come in near 1.493 billion bushels, this compares to the 1.659 we saw last year.  All wheat acres are expected to come in around 46.3 million acres.  Export sales this morning came in at 353,800 metric tons, this compares to the expected range from 200,000-400,000 metric tons.  There are continued concerns over the winter wheat crop, but prices have not been reflecting that as ample global supply and lack luster demand have been a cloud over the market.  Keep in mind that it is the end of the month and quarter which could lead to some position squaring from funds before the long weekend.

 

Technicals:  The wheat chart continues to look pretty ugly and a bearish USDA report could make it even worse.  The market is trading in the middle of our support pocket, a close below 446 ½ opens the door for a run at our next support pocket from....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

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