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Grain Market Update (3.5.18)

Published on: 13:51PM Mar 05, 2018

CORN (May)

 

Last Week’s Close:  May corn futures closed 10 cents higher for the week, trading in a range of 13 ¼ cents.  Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that funds bought 36,050 futures, putting their net long position at 58,446 contracts. (keep in mind CoT data is only compiled through Tuesday)

 

Fundamentals:  Weather continues to be a be the key headline, but we will be shifting our focus towards this weeks WASDE report which will be out on the 8th; we will start compiling estimates and have those for you before the release.  At the end of the month we will get the prospective plantings report which will likely garner a lot more attention.  Last week there was increasing chatter about steel tariffs, this will be something we watch very closely as the potential for retaliation looms over the ag industry. 

 

Technicals:  The market has been resilient over the last two months as we continue to see higher lows and higher highs.  The market is over extended on the RSI (relative strength index) with a reading of 75.45, but that does not mean the rally is over.  First technical support for the week comes in from....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

SOYBEANS (May)

 

Last Week’s Close:  For the week, May soybeans were up 22 cents, trading in a range of 38 ¾ cents.  Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds bought 47,265 futures, putting their net long position at 139,846 contracts. (keep in mind CoT data is only compiled through Tuesday)

 

Fundamentals:  Weather forecasts continue to show dry conditions for much of Argentina which has kept a bid in the market to start the week, if we do see moisture work its way into the radar we would expect to see a lot of premium evaporate from prices.  We have a WASDE report on the 8th, we will start compiling estimates and have those for you by Wednesday.  Jaw boning on steel tariffs last week has some market participants on edge, this will need to be watched closely as it could have ripple affects into the ag industry.

 

Technicals:  The market appeared to have a bit off a blow off top to end the week, but prices are holding up relatively well here in the overnight/early morning trade; we will want to see volume confirm price on the floor open.  Last week we had said 1080 would be an excellent opportunity for the bears to look short on the first test; if the market retests that level it is likely the bulls overtake it.  The market is “overbought” with the RSI at 78.46, but this is not reason enough to sell.  If you recall, we saw the RSI above 80 when we peaked out in July.  First technical support comes in from....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

WHEAT (May)
 

Last Week’s Close:  For the week, May wheat futures added 35 cents to prices and traded in a range of 50 ¼ cents.  Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds bought 5,597 futures, reducing their net short position to 54,560 contracts.  (keep in mind CoT data is only compiled through Tuesday).

 

Fundamentals:  Weather has been a key driver over the past few weeks as moisture in key wheat country areas continues to fall short.  We continue to watch the KC wheat contract as it will likely continue to be the driver.  We do have a WASDE report out on Thursday, we are expecting to get estimates together for Wednesdays report.  Currency volatility continues to be something we watch, particularly in the USD as it could have implications on exports over time. 

 

Technicals:  The market was a chop fest on Thursday and Friday, shaking out a lot of weak hands in the bull and bear camp.  The market tested and held first support which we have coming in from 493 ¼-499 ½.  If the market consolidates above this pocket this week, we will likely....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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