Grain Market Update (3.9.18)
Mar 09, 2018
Yesterday’s Close: Corn finished yesterday up 6 ½ cents, trading in a range of 8 cents on the day. Funds were estimated buyers of 28,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: It was nice to get new news on the wires yesterday that didn’t revolve around a recycled weather story. Export sales yesterday morning came in at 1,857,000 metric tons, this compares with the expected range from 1,000,000-1,600,000 metric tons. Yesterday’s USDA report showed ending stocks at 2.127 billion bushels, this was well below the average estimate of 2.313 billion bushels. World ending stocks came in at 199.2 million tonnes, this was down from 203.1 last month. USDA raised exports by 175 million bushels which is a great sign for the bull camp, this was a much-needed trend change. The South American crop shrunk a bit due to the weather issues. Argentina production is set at 36 million tonnes, this is down from 39 last month. Brazils production is pegged at 94.5 million tonnes, this is down .5 from the previous report.
Technicals: The market saw some friendly news and took full advantage of it as funds extended their net long position. The market managed to close above technical resistance which we had outlined in recent reports as 391 ¾-392 ¾. This would be a spot for longs/producers to consider reducing a portion of risk. The RSI (relative strength index) is currently at 78.19, this is overbought; an overbought market doesn’t mean we will see selling, it simply means consolidation would be healthy for the market. If the market does not take a breather here and keeps extending, then that will at some point lead to long liquidation. The next objective to the buy side comes in at....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: May soybeans finished the day down 1 ½ cents, trading in a range of 12 ¾ on the day. Funds were estimated sellers of 4,500 contracts.
Fundamentals: The market finally got some new news on the wires but has quickly turned the focus back to weather. Yesterdays export sales came in at 2,509,000 metric tons, this compares with the expected range from 1,000,000-1,700,000 metric tons. Yesterday’s USDA report showed ending stocks at 555 million bushels, this was above the average analyst estimate of 529 million bushels. World stocks came in at 94.4 million tonnes, this was down from 98.1. Argentina’s production was lowered to 47 million tonnes, this is down from 54. Brazils production was increased by 1 million tonnes to 113. Unlike corn, soybeans saw a reduction in exports to the tune of 35 million bushels. Attention turns back to weather for the near term; chances of precipitation over the next week look a bit better for areas of Argentina.
Technicals: The market is trading roughly 30 cents off the highs from last week as some profit taking post USDA and pre-weekend takes place. Yesterday on RFD-TV we discussed the 1059 area being a key pivot point, a breakdown or breakout on either side lends hand to a 20-cent move. In the overnight and early morning session it seems the bears have the edge here, if volume on the floor open can confirm price we would expect to see the selling pick up and press prices towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: May wheat futures finished the day up 2 cents, trading in a range of 12 ¼ cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 2,000 contracts on the day.
Fundamentals: Export sales yesterday morning came in at 391,000 metric tons, this compares with the expected range from 200,000-600,000 metric tons. Yesterday’s USDA report showed wheat ending stocks at 1.034 billion bushels, this was up from 1.009 previously. World stocks increased to 268.9 million tonnes, up from 266.1 million tonnes. Exports were lowered by 25 million bushels. We continue to keep a close eye on the KC contract which going to be a key driver in price action over the next month.
Technicals: The market has been consolidating lower over the past week and is forming a bit of a bull flag. Bulls need to see prices close above the bottom end of support as we round out the week, we have this pocket coming in from 492 ½-493 ¼. If the bulls can hold ground above this pocket into the weekend and open firm next week, we would expect to see prices make a run towards the recent highs. A failure to hold grown opens the door to another leg lower towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
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