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Grain Market Update (4.11.18)

Published on: 12:53PM Apr 11, 2018

CORN (May)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  May corn futures finished yesterday’s session down 1 cent, trading in a range of 3 ¾ cents.  Funds were estimated sellers of 6,000 contracts.

Fundamentals:  Yesterday’s USDA report had little affect on price action which was to be expected, nonetheless it was nice to see some meaningful numbers come across the wires.  Yesterday’s ending stocks came in at 2.182 billion bushels, the average estimate was for 2.189bb.  The South American corn production estimates were rolled back again.  The USDA has Argentina at 33mmt, this is down 3mmt from the previous report.  Brazil's production is at 92mmt, down 1.5mmt from the previous report.  Now that this report is behind us, market participants will turn the attention back to weather here in the states.  Colder temperatures have already had some suggesting that delays could shift more acres to soybeans.  We continue to remain optimistic on corn prices over the intermediate term.  Demand has been good, and we expect a bigger weather premium to work itself into the market.

 

Technicals:  The market is continuing to linger against our resistance pocket which comes in from 391 ¾-395 ¼.  The bulls will want to see a breakout above this level to encourage momentum buyers and funds to step back in on the buy-side.  The next line in the sand comes in at 400 ¾, but the more significant levels of resistance come in well above that.  If the bulls cannot manage a close above resistance this week, we could start to see some position squaring and long liquidation.  We have first technical support coming in from....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

SOYBEANS (May)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  May soybeans finished yesterday’s session up 2 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 19 ¼ cents.  Funds were estimated buyers of 5,500 contracts.

Fundamentals:  Soybeans were on the forefront of the radar for most market participants yesterday.  Though there were not many surprises in the USDA report, the intra-day range provided a little something for everyone.  US ending stocks came in at .550 billion bushels, this was below the average estimate of .574 billion bushels and slightly less than the March report which was .555 billion bushels.  The biggest data point was the reduction in Argentina’s production.  Last month the USDA had them at 47 million tonnes, the average estimate for yesterdays report was 42.66 million tonnes, the actual read came in at 40.0.  Brazil's production number came in at 115 million tonnes, this was up from 113 last month which helped offset some of the bullishness from Argentina. 

 

Technicals:  May soybeans printed their highest price since March 9th but backed off of those highs to close towards the lower end of the day’s range.  Buyers have stepped back in on the overnight and early morning session with prices lingering in the middle of our resistance pocket which we have outlined as 1052 ¾-1060 ½.  We have had a bearish bias against this resistance pocket but are considering reassessing that if we cannot come off these levels in today’s session.  We tend to take the overnight session with a grain of salt due to the low volume.  If the bulls can get a breakout and close above resistance, there doesn’t seem to be much in the way until....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

WHEAT (May)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  May wheat futures finished yesterday’s session up ¾ of a cent, trading in a range of 12 ¼ cents.  Funds were estimated to have been buyers of 4,000 contracts. 

 

Fundamentals:  Yesterday’s USDA report showed ending stocks at 1.064 billion bushels, this compares to the average trade estimate of 1.036 billion bushels and last months read of 1.034 billion bushels.  There was not a whole lot of “there there” for the wheat market as it appears weather is the key catalyst at play.  Colder temperatures continue to be a concern which have helped support Kansas City wheat; we will continue to monitor KC wheat as it will likely be the leader.

 

Technicals:  The market finished near unchanged after trading in a 12 ¼ cent range (most of that to the downside).  The bear camp is doing a good job of defending technical resistance which we have had listed as 493-495.  A breakout above this level could encourage short covering towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

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