Grain Market Update (5.22.18)
May 22, 2018
Yesterday’s Close: July corn futures finished the session up ½ of a cent, this after trading in a range of 6 ¼ cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 4,000 contracts on the day.
Fundamentals: Grain futures started the week on stronger footing thanks to positive developments with China and on-going concerns over the crop in Brazil. The recent headlines regarding trade should be taken with a grain of salt as there are no details yet. Weekly export inspections came in at 1,527,994 metric tons. The USDA released their weekly Crop Progress report yesterday which showed that 81% of the corn crop is now planted with 50% emerged; both of these are in line with the 5-year average. Weather here in the states will start to become more important as this crop starts to develop.
Technicals: The market made a run at the top end of the range yesterday which we have had defined as 407-408 ½. As mentioned in yesterday’s report: “If you have been long the market this would be a spot to look at reducing or hedging if you’re a producer”. We continue to be friendly the market over the intermediate term, but we....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: July soybeans finished the session up 24 ¾ cents, this after trading in a range of 15 ½ cents (gap higher Sunday night). Funds were estimated to have been buyers of 10,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: Positive news on trade kept a bid in the market to start the week, but we are taking it with a grain of salt as there has been little to no clarity on what was actually agreed upon. This will be something to keep a very close eye on going forward as it will likely have the biggest price implications. Yesterday’s weekly Crop Progress report from the USDA showed that the soybean crop is now 56% planted, this compares to the 5-year average of 44%. 26% of the crop is estimated to be emerged, this compares to the 5-year average of 15%. Export inspections came in at 893,680 metric tons, this was also supportive to price to start the week.
Technicals: The market has pressed itself up against our key technical resistance pocket which we have had outlined as 1026 ½-1028 ¼. This pocket represents the 50% retracement (middle of the range) for the year, along with the 100-day moving average and previously important price points. If the bulls can see follow through and breakout above this pocket, we could see the market run towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: July wheat futures finished the day down 10 ¾ cents, this after trading in a range of 21 ¼ cents for the day. Funds were estimated to have been sellers of 8,500 contracts.
Fundamentals: Wheat futures turned south on the open yesterday on ideas that beneficial weekend rains would help the crop. The USDA released their weekly Crop Progress report yesterday which showed good/excellent ratings unchanged at 36%, this is still well below the 56% we saw for the same time last year. Spring wheat is 79% planted and 37% emerged, this is below last years pace but nearly in line with the 5-year average. Export inspections yesterday morning came in at 341,299 metric tons.
Technicals: The market traded in a wide range, testing and holding both our first support and resistance levels which came in at 502 ¾-505 ¾ and 523-524 ¼ respectively. If support holds, that will keep higher lows in place and a breakout above resistance will give the market higher highs. This is what the bulls want to see for a bigger move higher. We have our bias as....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
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