Grain Market Update (6.1.18)
Jun 01, 2018
Yesterday’s Close: July corn futures finished the session up ½ of a cent, this after trading in a 5 ¼ cent range. Funds were estimated to have been buyers of 1,000 contracts on the day.
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly ethanol report showed that production rose 13,000 barrels per day to 1,041,000 barrels per day; this is relatively neutral in our minds. Weekly export sales this morning came in at 1,142,400 metric tons (combined old/new crop), this compares to estimated range of 850,000-1,400,000 metric tons. Favorable weather conditions going into the weekend and trade war fears were the two major catalysts that kept a lid on yesterday’s gains. Both of these two catalysts are subject to change at moments notice and will have an immediate impact on the futures price.
Technicals: The market made an early attempt yesterday to close the gap Tuesday, that comes in at 399 ¾. The bearish fundamental headlines were the main reason the market rejected the gap. Although we closed at the low end of the range, we remain optimistic that prices can stabilize and work back towards that gap. If the bulls can use that momentum to get a close above....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s Close: July soybean futures finished the session down 1 ½ cents, this after trading in a range of 17 ¼ cents. Funds were estimated sellers of 4,500 contracts on the day.
Fundamentals: Weekly export sales this morning came in at 1,045,000 metric tons (combined old/new crop), this compares to the estimated range from 100,000-450,000 metric tons. Yesterday’s choppy trade came on the back of continued concerns over global trade relations. The market seems to be getting better at digesting these headlines for what they are: headlines. As of right now a lot of it is comparable to the boy that cried wolf, we will have to wait for more substance before putting too much weight in it.
Technicals: Expect volatility to linger as weekend weather during this time of year usually makes for an interesting Sunday night open. Futures prices are stuck in the middle of some significant technical levels as we wait for new news to give us that breakout or breakdown. As of right now the bears have the slight advantage. First support continues to come in from 1013-1016, this pocket represents a key retracement and the 200-day moving average. A close below opens the door for a run towards 992 ½-997 ¾. On the resistance side of things, a close above 1027 ¾-1032 would change the tide and give the bulls the advantage.
Resistance: 1027 ¾-1032**, 1052 ¾-1058***, 1074-1078***
Support: 1013-1016**, 992 ½-997 ¾****
Yesterday’s Close: July wheat futures finished yesterday’s session up 2 cents, this after trading in a range of 16 ½ cents. Funds were estimated to have been buyers of 3,000 contracts on the day.
Fundamentals: Wheat futures managed to hold their weight in yesterday’s session. Hot and dry weather in Russia, Ukraine, and Australia continue to be a concern which has offered some support to the market recently. If we see those forecasts turn more favorable, we would expect to see the selling accelerate. Weather in the states continues to be watched closely. We expect to see a gap on the Sunday open with the direction pending on weekend weather. Weekly export sales came in at 300,400 metric tons, this compares to the estimated range from 50,000-550,000 metric tons.
Technicals: The market continues to hover around the 523 area which we have defined as a pivot point, this represents the 50% retracement (middle of the range) from the highs of last July to the lows of December. A conviction close below opens the door for a run back towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
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