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Grains ahead of Fridays USDA report

Published on: 13:57PM Jan 10, 2018

CORN (March)

 

Yesterdays Close:  March corn futures closed up 1 ¼ cent, trading in a range of 2 ¾ cents on the session.  Funds were estimated to have been buyers of 4,500 contracts.

 

Fundamentals:  Trade estimates are starting to circulate which is ramping up the anticipation of Fridays USDA report, arguably the biggest report of the year.  The headline number will be yields, but the valuable nuggets will be in the ending stocks data.  Corn yield estimates are ranging from 173.7-176.4 with the average estimate at 175.2.  Trade estimates for US quarterly stocks are ranging from 12.23-12.68 billion bushels with the average estimate at 12.41 billion bushels.  US ending stocks estimates are ranging from 2.26-2.52 billion bushels with the average estimate at 2.44 billion bushels.  We will get updates from CONAB tomorrow on South American production.

 

Technicals: The market continues to hug the 350 level which continues to be a magnet for front month futures.  Although it has been a trader’s paradise trading the tight range over the past several months, many market participants are looking for a new direction (other than sideways).  If you are in that camp, volatility is cheap, meaning options should be on your shopping list.  If we get a friendly report and a technical close above resistance, we could see...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

SOYBEANS (March)

 

Yesterdays Close:  March soybean futures finished down 3 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 7 ½ cents on the day.  Funds were estimated to have been sellers of 3,000 contracts.

 

Fundamentals:  Market participants continue to gear up for Fridays USDA report which is arguably one of if not the biggest report of the year.  Yield numbers will be the headline number, but ending and quarterly stocks will be the more significant numbers.  Quarterly stocks estimates range from 2.96-3.31 billion bushels with the average coming in at 3.19 billion bushels.  US Ending stocks estimated range is from .425-.595 billion bushels with the average of .445 billion bushels.  Weather in South America will continue to be monitored.  Rains are coming in and going out of forecasts on a continued basis, this has led to a bit of a choppy trade here to start the week.

 

Technicals: The market has been chopping around between 960 and 970 give or take for the last week and a half, likely shaking out a lot of week shorts and longs as we head into Fridays USDA report.  971 ¾ continues to be the first line in the sand the bulls want to close above.  If they can achieve this, we will likely see...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

WHEAT (March)

 

Yesterdays Close:  March wheat futures finished up 4 ¾ cents yesterday, trading in a range of 8 ½ cents.  Funds were estimated buyers of 4,000 contracts.

 

Fundamentals:  The market has been working higher on some colder temperatures and drier weather are coming back into the forecast over the weekend.  On top of that, we also have an important USDA report on Friday that is likely prompting some short covering.  US quarterly stocks estimates range from 1.80 billion bushels to 1.91 billion bushels with the average at 1.85 billion bushels.  US ending stocks are estimated to come in from .855 billion bushels to .987 billion bushels with the average estimate at .96 billion bushels.

 

Technicals:  March wheat futures are testing the 50-day moving average again in the early morning trade.  The fact that the market has not rejected prices again from this level could lead to...Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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