Grains Set to Rally
Dec 19, 2017
Yesterdays Close: March corn closed ¼ of a cent lower yesterday after trading in a narrow 2 ¼ cent range. Funds were estimated sellers of 1,500 contracts on the day.
Fundamentals: Export inspections yesterday morning came in at 594,281 metric tons, this was below the low end of expectations from 600,000-800,000 metric tons and below last weeks 717,919. Export inspections are on par with the five-year average but still lagging what the USDA needs to see to get inline with their projections for 2017/2018. We need to see exports come in better than expected to offer some support and encourage short covering in the market. We are talking about a trend of better than expected exports, not just one here and one there. Ethanol numbers have been phenomenal recently which has certainly held things together better than it could be; if those numbers come off we could see that put pressure on prices. Weather in South America is still being monitored closely. Dry weather is said to have slowed the planting pace down, recent reports have Argentina at 60% planted. This is just 3% behind the same time last year, but the slowest pace going back to 1995.
Technicals: We continue to feel that the........Please register for a Free Trial to see our technical outlook, proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterdays Close: January beans finished Mondays session down 5 ¾ cents, this after trading in a 13 ¼ cent range. Funds were estimated sellers of 8,000 contracts on the day.
Fundamentals: Export inspections yesterday morning came in at 1,774,555 metric tons, this was well above the expected range from 1,100,000-1,400,000 metric tons and was up from last week’s 1,233,440 metric tons. We did get a sale of 396,000 metric tons of beans to China for the 2017/2018 marketing year. Weather in South America has been on the radar (no pun intended) of many market participants recently and will continue to be. Planting in Argentina is lagging at just over 60% complete. This not only lags last years pace but also the longer-term average. Areas that remain dry have some wet weather working into the forecast which could be the reason for some of the recent pressure.
Technicals: The market has been ...........Please register for a Free Trial to see our technical outlook, proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterdays Close: March wheat futures finished yesterdays session up 2 cents, trading in a range of 4 cents on the session. Funds were estimated to have been buyers of 1,000 contracts.
Fundametnals: Yesterday mornings export inspections came in at 585,637 metric tons, this was above the expected range from 250,000-450,000 metric tons and up from last weeks 354,527 metric tons. As we have been mentioning for several months now, we need to start seeing consistent beats with the weekly export data. Low prices tend to cure low prices so perhaps that is on the horizon and could help put a floor in the market. With that said, we will also likely have a ceiling in the market as ample global supplies will likely halt any attempt at a significant rally.
Technicals: The market has slowly.........Please register for a Free Trial to see our technical outlook, proprietary bias and levels.
Sign up for 1 or all 5 of our daily Blue Line Express commodity reports!
(Click the button to sign up for a FREE trial of our daily commodity commentary)
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.