Great Grain Export Sales This Morning
Dec 21, 2017
Yesterdays Close: March corn futures closed 1 ¾ cents higher yesterday, trading in a range of 2 ½ cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 4,500 contracts.
Fundamentals: Yesterdays ethanol report showed production at 1.077 million barrels per day, this was down 12,000 from the previous week but still marks the third highest production level on record; the only two higher weeks were the past two weeks. Ethanol stocks came in at 22.3 million barrels, this was down a modest .1 million barrels from the previous week. Export sales this morning came in at 1,558,300 metric tons, this compares to the estimated range from 800,000-1,100,000 metric tons. This is up 80% from the previous and a nice sliver lining going into the Christmas weekend. The bulls really want to start seeing a trend of better than expected exports to help support this market as we look towards 2018; a great number once a month will not do the trick. Weather will continue to be monitored closely in South America as well.
Technicals: January option expiration is tomorrow which could help intensify the magnet towards 350. The open interest on the 350 puts 11,402, there are 6,000 350 calls; there are 22,183 open at 360. January expiration is.....Please sign up for a Free Trial to see our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterdays Close: January soybeans closed 2 ¾ cents lower yesterday, trading in a range of 7 ¼ cents on the session. Funds were estimated sellers of 5,000 contracts on the day.
Fundamentals: Export sales this morning came in at 1,742,900 metric tons, this is up 20% from the previous week. This compares with the expected range from 1,300,000-1,800,000 metric tons. As with corn, the market really wants to see better than expected exports become a trend to really offer some support to the market. Within expectations just doesn’t get the job done. Weather concerns in South America have seemingly evaporated for some areas. We will continue to keep a close eye on this as forecasts are consistently changing. If they do get better than expected weather, they could be set for another record crop.
Technicals: The sell off over the last two weeks has left a technical graveyard on the chart. The bulls need to see the market reclaim 967-968 ¼ in order to START repairing damage. This was previous support which....Please sign up for a Free Trial to see our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterdays Close: March wheat futures closed 5 ¼ cents higher yesterday, trading in a range of 8 ¼ cents on the day. Funds were estimated buyers of 2,500 contracts on the day.
Fundamentals: Export sales this morning came in at 796,300 metric tons, up 35% from the previous week. This compares with the expected range from 300,000-600,000 metric tons. Wheat is no different than corn and beans in the sense that the bulls must start seeing better than expected exports to help put a floor in the market. Arguably this premise is most important for wheat with nearly every continent but Antarctica growing wheat. The bulls are hoping that low prices cure low prices, but we feel ample global demand will keep a lid on any significant attempt at a rally.
Technicals: 424 ¼ has been an important line in the sand for us recently, but we are trying to remain patient for 437 ½ to start selling again. This represents the 50-day moving average, a very simple technical indicator, but one we .....Please sign up for a Free Trial to see our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
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