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Has corn found a bottom? (11.2.17)

Published on: 13:15PM Nov 02, 2017

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CORN (December)

Session Close: December corn futures closed 2 ¾ cents higher yesterday, trading in a range of four cents.  Funds were estimated to have been buyers of 5,000 contracts.

Fundamentals: Corn managed to trade higher yesterday on some concerns over the back half of harvest.  Weather has been less than ideal for the areas that are lagging the five-year average with rain, wind, and snow adding some stress to an already stressful time of year.  Yesterday’s weekly ethanol report from the EIA showed ethanol production rose by 17,000 barrels per day but total stocks were up 400,000 to 21.5 million barrels.  Export sales this morning came in at 811,400 metric tons, this compares with the expected range from 800,000-1,100,000 metric tons.  FCStone released their yield estimates yesterday and have the corn pegged at 173.7 well above the 162.8 they had published in August.  Informa Economics will be releasing their estimates today

Technicals: Yesterdays price action was very constructive as the market managed to make a second higher low from the August 12th low.  If the bulls can achieve a close back above the 50-day moving average a post a second higher high above 355 ¼, we could see funds start to cover.  Whether you are a bull or a bear, you have an opportunity here as we linger in the middle of a well-defined trading range which means well defined risk.  We are shifting our bias from bearish to neutral and would not be opposed to looking long so long as yesterday’s lows can hold.  We will need to see more confirmation to change that to outright bullish.  When we talk with clients about picking bottoms we often tell them that the only thing you get from that is stinky fingers and that it is a process and not a point.  This chart is starting to show some value.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 351 ½**, 355¼***, 360-362***, 372-375**

Support: 342 ½-344 ¼**, 334-335 ½***

 

SOYBEANS (November)

Session Close: November soybean futures closed 6 cents higher yesterday, trading in a range of 11 ¼ cents on the session.  Funds were estimated buyers of 6,000 contracts.

Fundamentals: Yesterdays crush report came in at 145.37 million bushels, this was in line with the consensus from analysts which is up just over ........

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.