Yesterday’s Close: July corn futures finished yesterday’s session up 5 ½ cents, trading in a range of 5 ¾ cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 30,000 contracts.
Fundamentals: Weekly export inspections yesterday morning came in at 820,916 metric tons, within the range of expectations. Crop Progress was released after the close, that came in at 49% complete, well below the 5-year average, 80%. Areas like Iowa and Nebraska made big strides, but Illinois (among others) is a serious question market with only 24% of the crop in the ground, the slowest pace on record. Getting this late into the planting season you start to have a serious conversation regarding a decrease in acres and a potential for below trend yield. You have to go back to the early/mid 1990’s to find a planting pace like this, hybrids performance will be the big wild card, putting a bigger emphasis on crop progress through the developmental stages. If the crop is not developing adequately, we could see the funds not only continue to cover their short position but flip long.
Yesterday’s Close: July soybean futures finished yesterday’s session up 10 ½ cents, trading in a range of 14 cents. Funds were estimated buyers of 8,500 contracts on the day.
Fundamentals: Export inspections yesterday morning came in at 497,070 metric tons, within the range of expectations. Crop Progress was reported after the close, that came in at 19% complete, far behind the 5-year average pace of 47%. The big concern areas include Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, typically 40-50% complete but all stuck in the single digits. If we don’t get a break in the weather, we could see acres come off in a meaningful way. The ongoing headwind continues to be the lack of progress on trade with China.
Yesterday’s Close: July wheat futures finished yesterday’s session up 17 ½ cents, trading in a range of 16 cents (gap higher Sunday night). Funds were estimated buyers of 9,000 contracts on the day.
Fundamentals: Short covering continues to be the name of the game as corn and wheat futures feed off of each other’s momentum. Money flow and technicals will continue to be our focus. Weekly export inspections came in at 757,704 metric tons, the high end of expectations. Crop Progress showed that spring wheat is 70% complete, above estimates. Winter wheat conditions improved 2% to 66% good/excellent.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.