How Low Can They (Grains) Go?

Published on: 13:00PM Apr 01, 2019

Grain Express

 

April 1, 2019

 
 

 Corn (May)

 

Last Week’s Close:  May corn futures finished Friday’s session down 16 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 19 cents. 

 

Fundamentals:  Friday’s USDA report showed quarterly stocks at 8.6 billion bushels, well above the average estimate of 8.335, but still below last years 8.892bb.  On top of that bearish headline, the prospective planting number came in at 92.792 million acres, nearly 1.5 million acres above the average analyst estimate.  Though the data is through a survey that took place before the floods in the Midwest, it’s hard to find a silver lining with those top line numbers.  Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that funds bought back 57,912 contracts through March 26th, trimming their net short position to 203,414.  After Friday’s session, funds could very well be back to where they were two weeks ago.  Friday was also the end of the month and quarter, perhaps that played a role in price action as well.  We will see attention turn back to weather as it will be a growing factor in price action over the coming weeks. 

 

Technicals:  We went into Friday’s USDA report....Get our full report (outlook/market bias/ technical levels) emailed to you every day, click HERE or email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com.

 

 

Soybeans (May)

 

Last Week’s Close:  May soybeans finished Friday’s session down 5 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 9 ¾ cents. 

 

Fundamentals:  Friday’s USDA report showed quarterly stocks at 2.716 billion bushels, above the average estimate of 2.683 and above last years 2.109bb.  Prospective plantings helped offset the bearish stocks number, coming in at 84.617 million acres, well below the average analyst estimate of 86.169 million acres.  Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that funds bought back 12,598 short positions, putting their net short at 51,394 contracts (not massive by any means).  Attention over the coming weeks will likely shift back to weather and trade negotiations with China. 

 

Technicals:  The chart has been....Get our full report (outlook/market bias/ technical levels) emailed to you every day, click HERE or email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com.

 

 

Wheat (May)

 

Last Week’s Close:  may wheat futures finished Friday’s session down 4 ½ cents, trading in a range of 12 ¼ cents.

 

Fundamentals:  Friday’s USDA report showed quarterly stocks at 1.591 billion bushels, above the average estimate of 1.555 billion bushels and above last years 1.495 billion bushels.  Prospective plantings kept the market from rolling out of bed, coming in at 45.754 million acres, below expectations. 

 

Technicals:  The technical picture is still....Get our full report (outlook/market bias/ technical levels) emailed to you every day, click HERE or email Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com.

 

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