Is corn set to breakout?
Jan 19, 2018
Yesterdays Close: March corn futures finished yesterdays session down 1 cent, trading in a range of 3 ½ on the day. Funds were estimated sellers of 6,500 contracts.
Fundamentals: Yesterdays weekly EIA ethanol report showed production increased to 1,061,000 barrels per day, this was a nice rebound from last weeks drop off to 996,000 barrels; in fact, it was the largest 1 week rebound on record. Export sales this morning came in at 1,888,300 metric tons, this was well above the expected range and a silver lining for the bulls. The bulls desperately need to see a trend of better than expected exports to get more excited. Weather and crop development in South America continue to be a talking point but there is not much new news on that front. If things change for the worse, we could see that spark some short covering from the funds who have a near record short position.
Technicals: Corn futures are firmer this morning, hovering along the 50-day moving average, an indicator the market has failed to breakout above for many months now. Although the bulls should be encouraged by this week’s trade, those expectations should be tempered as this is the top of the trading range over the last month. A failure to see a conviction close above technical resistance will invite sellers back into the market and press us back towards the low end of the range which we have defined as....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterdays Close: March soybean futures finished yesterdays session up 3 ½ cents, trading in a range of 8 ¼ for the day. Funds were estimated buyers of 4,000 contracts on the session.
Fundamentals: Weather concerns in South America, particularly in Argentina continue to dominate the headlines. Soybean meal has been helping the cause for soybeans and will continue to be something you want to monitor. This mornings export sales came in at 1,240,200 metric tons, this was on the high side of expectations. As with corn and wheat, the market needs to see a better than expected exports on a consistent basis to encourage more buying.
Technicals: The market has done a fantastic job of maintaining and building on strength from last Fridays USDA report. The close above 971 ¼ is encouraging for the bulls and lends hand to a move towards are target of....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterdays Close: March wheat futures finished the session up 3 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 4 ½ cents on the day. Funds were estimated buyers of 2,500 contracts.
Fundamentals: Export sales this morning came in at 153,100 metric tons, this is well below the expected range. Export sales continue to be a disappointment for the market despite the dollar on the lows (imagine if the dollar was on the highs). The bears remain in control until we start to see a trend of better than expected demand along with crop damage. If we don’t get significant damage to the crop it is likely we continue to see a lid on prices.
Technicals: Wheat has managed to grind higher for majority of the week but that has brought us back to technical resistance which we have been defining as the 50-day moving average. We have traded above it recently but there was a lack of conviction on the price action. A conviction close above it opens the door to short covering and a run towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
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