Is the relief rally in grains over?

Published on: 12:59PM Sep 25, 2018

Corn (December)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  December corn futures finished yesterday’s session up 3 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 6 ¼ cents.  Funds were estimated buyers of 11,500 contracts on the day. 

 

Fundamentals:  Corn futures started the week in the same fashion they finished the last, marching higher on the back of short covering from funds.  As mentioned in yesterday’s report and in our interview with RFD-TV, we believe this short covering rally could continue but may be limited due to producer selling picking up as prices tick up.  Export inspections came in at 1,263,310 metric tons, this was above the top end of estimates.  Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed good/excellent ratings ticked up 1% to 69%.  Harvest is now at 16% complete.

 

Technicals:  Yesterday’s higher close marked the fourth consecutive close higher, the longest winning streak since July.  Yesterday’s high coincided with trendline resistance from the August 8th highs, if the bulls can chew through this pocket, we could see an extension towards 366-369 ¾.  This pocket represents the original breakdown point from the USDA report on August 12th, the 50-day moving average, and the top end of the most recent range.  On the support side of things, the first line in the sand is....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

Soybeans (November)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  November soybean futures finished yesterday’s session down 9 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 7 cents (gap lower).  Funds were estimated sellers of 5,500 contracts on the day.

 

Fundamentals:  Soybean futures tried to work higher yesterday but the effort from the bull camp lacked the necessary conviction.  The market is still in consolidation mode as participants await new news to give us directional clarity.  Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed good/excellent ratings at 68%, this was up 1% from the previous week.  Soybean harvest is now 14% complete, slightly ahead of what analyst were expecting.  Export inspections yesterday morning came in at 693,890 metric tons, this was within the range of analyst estimates. 

 

Technicals:  The market is consolidating after the rally in the back half of last weeks trade, this has the bulls and the bears sitting on their hands to start this week’s trade.  Our first resistance pocket remains intact from 850-855, but another test may lend hand for a move out above.  The next resistance pocket for us comes in from....Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

 

Wheat (December)

 

Yesterday’s Close:  December wheat futures finished yesterday’s session up 3 ¾ cents, trading in a range of 11 ¼ cents.  Funds were estimated buyers of 4,500 contracts. 

 

Fundamentals:  Wheat futures marched higher yesterday on what we are saying is a technical move.  Yesterday morning’s export inspections came in at 409,592 metric tons, this was within the range of expectations.  Yesterday afternoon’s Crop Progress report showed winter wheat planting at 25% complete, up 12% from the previous week. 

 

Technicals:  The market poked its head above our resistance pocket but came back in before the end of the session.  The bears must defend yesterday’s high on a closing basis to keep lower highs in play, lower lows have followed lower highs for the last 2 months.  A breakdown back below...Click this link for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

 

Sign up for a free trial of 1 or all 5 of our daily Blue Line Express commodity reports!

 

 

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.