Livestock Roundup (3.20.18)
Mar 20, 2018
LEJ8: (.675) at 119.55, trading in a range of 1.50
LEM8: (1.10) at 109.05, trading in a range of 1.50
GFJ8: (.70) at 137.50, trading in a range of 2.10
Cattle Commentary: The broken record continues with the board unable to hold a bid for the better part of the last month. It has been made clear that funds want to tighten the books as concerns linger over the “wall of cattle” and potential macro developments such as trade disputes. The slow bleed lower makes one think that it is not over yet as the market needs to see a capitulation cleanse to post a near term bottom. Cash trade was fairly active today with the bulk of it coming in at 126 in KS and TX. This is down from last weeks 127. Keep in mind that we do have a Cattle on Feed report out on Friday afternoon. Early estimates are for On Feed at 108.1, Placements 103.4, and Marketings at 101. Boxed beef was lower on the day.
PM Boxed Beef / Choice / Select
Current Cutout Values: / 223.35 / 216.74
Change from prior day: / (1.52) / (.55)
Choice/Select spread: / 6.61
Live Cattle (April)
Live cattle futures continued to slide lower today, breaking down below that significant support pocket that we had outlined from 120.15-120.25. The break and close below could encourage additional long liquidation towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Feeder Cattle (April)
Feeder cattle have continued to struggle to find a bid in the futures market. The April board has been drifting lower on the back of lower highs and lower lows, slicing through support like a warm knife on butter. 137.75 was a big level for us, the inability to hold on the first test leads us to believe there is more pressure due. The market is getting to be extremely oversold, this will likely lead to a relief rally at some point; we continue to believe that relief rallies (few and far between) should be sold in feeders. First resistance for tomorrows session will come in from....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Lean Hog Commentary and Technicals (June)
Lean hogs traded in a relatively tight range, finishing the day under pressure and posting their lowest close since the beginning of September. June futures finished the session down .35 at 76.465, trading in a range of .95 on the day. The bears are in obvious control here and it seems that a test of the August 30th lows are all but inevitable at this point (something the market just achieved in the April futures). At this point we would thing the market would be oversold enough that the selling by start to dry up and provide at least some near-term consolidation. First resistance doesn’t come in until....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
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