Livestock Roundup (4.12.18)
Apr 12, 2018
LEM8: 2.225 at 103.80, trading in a range of 2.625
LEQ8: 1.925 at 104.30, trading in a range of 2.125
GFK8: 4.10 at 139.65, trading in a range of 3.675
GFQ8: 3.95at 144.65, trading in a range of 3.85
Cattle Commentary: The trend throughout the first half of the week was: buy the close, sell the open. It looked like we were going to see a similar trade this morning, but the money flow started to shift. The fist half of the day was more of a “buyers strike” than selling pressure. The lack of selling encouraged tides to shift (see technicals below). Today’s cash trade firmed with reports of 118 in Texas. We are not counting out an even higher trade as we round out the week. Ranchers are bracing for a big blizzard in the northern plains which has also helped offer some support. If you don’t want to worry about the swings in the futures market, options are a great tool. May options trade off of June futures but have significantly less time premium in them, making them much more affordable; especially if you’re just looking for a shorter-term move.
PM Boxed Beef / Choice / Select
Current Cutout Values: / 212.48 / 200.67
Change from prior day: / (.59) / .06
Choice/Select spread: / 11.81
Live Cattle (June)
Yesterday we talked about the risk being to the upside and we saw that today with the move above 103-103.375 giving bulls the courage to step in and buy. From there the market accelerate higher towards our next pocket which came in from 104.20-104.60. We still like the buy side but need to see a continuation to finish the week. A breakout above resistance opens the door to our next resistance pocket which comes in from 106.00-106.45. We would not be surprised to see an extension towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Feeder Cattle (May)
The ability to make new highs on the week encouraged more buying activity which pressed prices towards 139.95 which is a key Fibonacci retracement from the November highs to the April lows. A clean breakout above this level encourages a run towards 143.25-144.74. This pocket contains 50, 100, and 200 day moving average, along with the 50% (middle of the range) retracement from those November highs to the April lows. Though today’s price action was encouraging, we would not be surprised to see....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Lean Hog Commentary and Technicals (June)
Lean hog futures continued the breakout move higher today with June finishing the day up 1.675 at 77.45, this after trading in a range of 2.25. June futures look poised to test resistance from 78.05-78.45. This pocket represents the 50% retracement from the January highs to the April lows, along with the 50-day moving average. The run off of the recent lows has no doubt been impressive and today’s move changes the tide. With that said, the market may struggle to continue above....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Sign up for a free trial of 1 or all 5 of our daily Blue Line Express commodity reports!
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.