Livestock Roundup (4.16.18)

Published on: 22:25PM Apr 16, 2018

Last Trades:

LEM8: .50 at 104.15, trading in a range of 2.025

LEQ8:  -.075 at 104.20, trading in a range of 1.875

GFK8: -.125 at 140.25, trading in a range of 2.575

GFQ8: -.50 at 144.60, trading in a range of 2.425


Cattle Commentary:  Cattle futures resumed their trend of opening firm and then fading.  Early morning support came in from all directions; higher cash after Friday’s close, blizzard conditions in some areas, lower grain prices, and position squaring ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report.  Early estimates are for Cattle on Feed to come in at 107.5%, Placements at 90.6%, and Marketing’s at 96.1%.  Cash trade has yet to develop this week, but some are suggesting we could see prices steady to frim from last week.  The bulk of cash trade to start last week came in at 117 but that rose quickly to 122 by late Friday afternoon.  This weeks Fed Cattle Exchange has 3,220 head offered which is the second week in a row of decent numbers.


PM Boxed Beef / Choice / Select

Current Cutout Values: / 211.79 / 199.98

Change from prior day: / (.82) / .07

Choice/Select spread: / 11.81


Cattle Technicals


Live Cattle (June)


Live cattle didn’t waste anytime in testing first resistance which was had listed last week at 106.00-106.45; we expended that pocket to 106.05-106.925 in the weekend edition of our Livestock Roundup.  106.025 represents the 61.8% retracement from the March ’17 lows to the November highs.  The top side of the target represents previous support and resistance levels from the end of March.  If you have been able to be long the market this is the pocket to reduce on the first test.  We still believe the market can chew through this pocket, but it may take a few tests to breakout.  The next line in the sand comes in from....


Feeder Cattle (May)


May feeders made a run above 142 for the first time since March 15th but failed to hold gains in the afternoon session.  Futures closed near the lows of the day, just above our first support pocket from 139.425-139.95.  We still think there is opportunity in this market, but traders will want to remain nimble.  We have been making higher highs and higher lows to start the month, but the headwinds above may be enough to keep things in check.  There is significant resistance from....


Lean Hog Commentary and Technicals (June)


Lean hogs tested our key technical resistance pocket which we have defined as 78.05-78.45.  This pocket represents 50% retracement from the January highs to the April lows, along with the 50-day moving average, and Friday’s highs.  The inability for the market to attract buyers at this pocket led to some profit taking from those who caught the recent run higher.  June futures finished the day down .80 at 76.85, trading in a range of 1.675.  Seasonally we see the market rally this time of year, so some are suggesting this will be a healthy pullback, setting the stage for higher lows and higher highs.  First support comes in at....


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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.