Livestock Roundup (4.30.18)
Apr 30, 2018
LEM8: -1.125 at 105.875, trading in a range of 2.05
LEQ8: -1.625 at 104.35, trading in a range of 2.225
GFK8: -2.175 at 139.85, trading in a range of 3.15
GFQ8: -2.225 at 146.025, trading in a range of 3.275
Cattle Commentary: Cash trade Friday afternoon came in at 124 in the south and 126 in the north which had the bulls feeling optimistic into the weekend. That optimism faded rather quickly today with the high print on the session coming in within the first 60 seconds of trading. Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed that managed money is sold 7,269 contracts from April 17th-April 24th, this shrinks their net long position to 15,387. It is possible that end of the month position squaring helped keep a lid on the market. Though this is a futures market and not a “now” market, we still feel that the board and cash will work together in narrowing the basis; this gives us a friendly bias for the time being. With that said, we were pairing back some things today for the simple fact that we weren’t getting what we wanted from price. Boxed beef was up today.
PM Boxed Beef / Choice / Select
Current Cutout Values: / 224.42 / 204.79
Change from prior day: / 2.68 / .47
Choice/Select spread: / 19.63
Live Cattle (June)
June live cattle gaped higher on the open but posted their top of the day shortly after. Previous resistance at 106.05 became first support during the day, a level that wasn’t able to hold at the close. We are still optimistic we can see the market work higher, but today’s price action was a caution flag for the time being. The bulls need to see the market hold ground here in the first half of the week. If we see follow through pressure in tomorrows session, we could see the selling accelerate things towards 103.95-104.00. On the resistance side of things....
Feeder Cattle (August)
August feeder cattle have had some nice intraday swings recently but have made little sustainable ground over the last two weeks. First technical support comes in from 144.775-145.45. This pocket represents the gap from April 20th, as well as the 50% retracement (middle of the range) for the years range. A break and close below opens the door for a run at 142.40-143.00. This pocket represents the 200-day moving average and a key retracement level on the years range. On the resistance side of things....
Lean Hog Commentary and Technicals (June)
Lean hog futures traded both sides of unchanged, only to finish the day near unchanged. June futures finished up .275 at 72.625, this after trading in a range of 1.40. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that managed money bough 1,454 futures from April 14th-April 27th, this puts their net long position at 2,664. Though the chart is not the prettiest, we feel that there is opportunity from here down to the $70 handle in the intermediate term. Bulls need to reclaim....
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