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Livestock Roundup (4.9.18)

Published on: 21:26PM Apr 09, 2018

 Last Trades:

LEM8: .175 at 102.50, trading in a range of 2.50

LEQ8: -.225 at 102.55, trading in a range of 2.375

GFK8: -.225 at 135.40, trading in a range of 3.55

GFQ8: -.55 at 140.90, trading in a range of 3.425

 

Cattle Commentary:  Cattle futures gaped higher on this mornings open as the markets seemed relieved to not get any retaliatory rhetoric from China over the weekend.  That could change over night as Chinas president Xi Jinping is expected to speak at a summit this evening (starts 8:30 pm cst).  Outside markets started trending lower this afternoon as the FBI raided President Trumps personal lawyer’s office.  We would also expect to see a US response to the weekend Syrian chemical attack this week.  This will likely keep volatility heightened as money managers may be in the “sell first ask questions later” mindset; this could spill over into the commodity sector too.  Higher grain prices likely played a role in the afternoon weakness.  The bulk of cash cattle last week came in from 115-119 live and 184-188 dressed.  Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that managed money sold 13,950 live cattle futures which puts their net long at 34,940.  Managed money sold 2,058 feeder cattle futures which puts their net short at 2,264.

 

PM Boxed Beef / Choice / Select

Current Cutout Values: / 215.04 / 203.14

Change from prior day: / .73 / (2.46)

Choice/Select spread: / 11.90

 

Cattle Technicals

 

Lives Cattle (June)

 

June fat cattle gaped higher on the open but couldn’t get much follow through and ended up posting their high in the first 35 minutes of trade.  The inability to see follow through above Thursdays gap lower kept the buyers at bay and that led to a slow bleed lower that ended up filling the early morning gap.  The bears are in control on the chart still, but the silver lining is the cash premium.  The bulls need to reclaim price action above....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

Feeder Cattle (May)

 

May feeders started the week with a bang but that faded as prices pulled back to our support pocket which came in from 134.975-135.40.  A break and close below opens the door to accelerated selling pressure, the next pocket comes in from 133.55-134.00 with 128.90-129.05 being the objective for bears.  On the flip side of things, the bulls need to see a close back above....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

Lean Hog Commentary and Technicals (June)

 

June lean hog futures were much tamer (compared to cattle) to start the day as prices were moderately higher on the open.  At 10am cst we saw big volume take prices from 73.35 to 76.10 in under 5 minutes.  June futures touched traded limit up at one point, but the last trade came in at 75.775, up 2.50 on the day after trading in a range of 3.575.  Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed manage money sold 539 futures which puts them net short 51 futures.  Today’s high print came in line with our second resistance pocket which we outlined as 76.00-76.25, a breakout above here opens the door to additional buying towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

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