Livestock Roundup (7.24.18)
Jul 24, 2018
LEQ8: -.575 at 108.15, trading in a range of 1.15
LEV8: -.30 at 110.30, trading in a range of 1.325
GFQ8: -.275 at 152.975, trading in a range of 1.375
GFU8: -.70 at 153.625, trading in a range of 1.40
Cattle Commentary: Cattle futures spent the whole day in the red as new buyers sat on their hands at the top end of the range (see technicals below). Cash trade this week has yet to develop but bids are starting to surface in the south, coming in at 110. Tomorrow’s Fed Cattle Exchange has 1,249 head offered. In a thinly traded market and little new news, this always has the potential to put the line in the sand. Cold storage numbers out yesterday afternoon showed beef stocks at 448.6 million pounds, this was below the average analyst estimate of 467 million pounds.
PM Boxed Beef / Choice / Select
Current Cutout Values: / 204.65 / 197.95
Change from prior day: / (.17) / (.08)
Choice/Select spread: / 6.70
Live Cattle (August)
The longer-term trend of higher highs and higher lows I still intact, but we continue to feel there is opportunity here for those interested in taking a shot to the short side. August live cattle spent the whole day below the 200-day moving average as buyers staged a strike. The market retreated to our first support pocket which we had defined in yesterday’s report as 107.55-107.775, today’s low was 107.70. If the market breaks and closes below this pocket, we would not be surprised to see an acceleration in the selling take us closer towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Feeder Cattle (August)
Feeder cattle continued to peel back, marking lower highs and lower lows for the third consecutive session. We would not be surprised to see this short-term trend continue until the market tests technical support which we have coming in from 150.875-151.15. This pocket represents recent lows, but more significantly, trendline support from the May 17th lows, something we tested and held twice in June and another time on July 11th. A break and close below here could take us down towards....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Lean Hog Commentary and Technicals (August)
I feel like I am writing the same thing every day now. It was another pathetic rally attempt today with August futures finishing down 1.05 at 65.35, trading in a range of 1.55. We have been raising a caution flag since the market broke below the April 4th lows of 72.45 (14 days). There’s no need to be a hero and try to catch a falling knife, and there’s no reason to suggest selling here; in this instance the best trade is no trade. From a trader’s perspective, we continue to feel....Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
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