Poor Export Sales for Corn Soybeans and Wheat

Published on: 14:06PM Feb 14, 2019

Corn (March)

Yesterday’s Close:  March corn futures finished yesterday’s session up 1 ¼ cents, trading in a range of 2 ¾ cents. 

Fundamentals:  Corn futures managed to grind higher in yesterday’s session but lacked any conviction on the back of a light news wire.  Yesterday’s weekly EIA ethanol report showed production at 1.029 million barrels per day, this was up 62,000 barrels from the previous week.  Weekly Export Sales this morning came in at 460,000 metric tons for the week ending January 3rd, this was below the low end of estimates.

Technicals:  Yesterday’s tight range did little to change the technical landscape over the last 24 hours.  The market is running out of momentum against the 50 and 100 day moving average, we listed that in yesterdays report as our pivot pocket, coming in from 378 ¾-379 ½.  If the bulls can chew through this pocket, we would look for an extension towards the top end of the recent range from 382-385.  The top end of the range also contains a key retracement, the January highs, and the 200-day moving average. 

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 382-384 ½**, 388-390 ½****

Pivot: 378 ¾-379 ½

Support: 371-372 ½***, 367 ¼-368 ½****, 354 ¾****


Soybeans (March)

Yesterday’s Close:  March soybean futures finished yesterday’s session unchanged, trading in a range of 6 ¼ cents. 

Fundamentals:  No new news on the trade front led to a tight ranging trade yesterday.  We will continue to keep an ear to the ground as meetings are expected to take place today and tomorrow with U.S. and Chinese trade representatives.  Weekly export inspections came in at (612,000) metric tons for the week ending January 3rd, yes a negative number, thanks to cancellations from China and “Unknown”, which is likely China too. 

Technicals:  Soybeans have traded on the 200-day moving average for 15 of the last 15 sessions.  From a technician’s perspective, we want to see the market break away (up/down) from the 200-day moving average.  First technical resistance today comes in from 920-922 ½.  A breakout above this pocket could extend the market towards the February highs of 931 ¼.  On the support side of things, the bulls MUST defend 899 ½-901 ¾.  This pocket represents the 100-day moving average, previously important price points, and trend line support which was tested and held at least once in the previous 6 months. 

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 920-922 ½***, 931 ¼**, 941-947****

Support: 899 ½-901 ¾****, 890 ½-891 ¼**, 880 ½**


Wheat (March)

Yesterday’s Close:  March wheat futures finished yesterday’s session up 1 ½ cents, trading in a range of 5 ¼ cents. 

Fundamentals:  Wheat has been a lack luster market recently as market participants search for a catalyst to give them more conviction on a direction.  Winter weather moving through the Midwest has been a concern for some, mostly those looking for affirmation.  Though we think the risk/reward is favorable to the buyers, we are aware that winter months bring colder weather, so nothing to write home about there.  Export sales this morning came in at 131,000 metric tons for the week ending January 3rd, below the low end of expectations. 

Technicals:  On the technical side of things, not much has changed.  The market has been trading in wider ranges intraday but finishing closer to unchanged for the last 4 sessions.  Must hold support for the bulls comes in from 508-510.  A break and close below here opens the door for a run below the psychologically significant $5.00 handle.  On the resistance side of things, our pocket from 522 ¼-525 held perfectly yesterday.  This is still the pocket the bulls want to chew through on a closing basis.  This pocket represents the 100-day moving average, Friday’s highs, and the original breakdown point from Thursday.

Bias:  Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 522 ¼-525***, 531-532**, 537 ¾-541 ¾****

Support: 508-510**, 499-501 ¼****


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