Fundamentals: All eyes are on weather this week as planting delays persist throughout the Midwest. Expectations are for the crop to be 40-50% completed, well shy of the 5-year average, 80%. Expectations of less acres and/or decreased yield have put a premium into the market and will likely continue to as the heavily short funds look to cover and potentially flip long. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds with a net short position of 282,918 futures/options, little changed from the previous week. Keep in mind that that data is collected through Tuesday, estimates for the back half of the week show funds reduced another 73,000 contracts, putting the real time estimate closer to -210,000 futures/options.
Fundamentals: Soybeans are marching higher in the early morning session thanks to growing concerns over weather and planting progress, or lack thereof. This afternoons crop progress report is expected to show the U.S. soybean crop 10-15% planted. The lingering headwind for the soybean market is the ongoing trade battle with China. Until that issue gets resolved, rallies will likely be sold into by producers. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that funds holding a record short position of 168,835 futures/options through Tuesday. Estimates indicate that funds bought back roughly 1,500 contracts in the back half of the week.
Fundamentals: The market made a swift reversal last week as funds look to cover short positions in the grain complex. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds holding a short position of 78,461 futures/options for the Chicago contract, funds are short another 56,424 contracts in KC wheat. This afternoon’s crop progress report is expected to show spring wheat planting to be 70-80% complete.
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